Adanac Molybdenum Corporation AUAYF

RE: AUA Newbie

[grumpymonkey007]

Heya Curly, I own AUA, am weathering this storm and am trying to pull together more cash to put into the stock. That being said, in addition to Molly Man's pumpery there's also risk: * AUA is in the midst of attempting to raise 600MM (with assurance from the company that the majority of it will be debt-based). * AUA is now in a protracted Federal environmental assessment process - the initial high-level permitting has been rejected due to a precednt set recently in the courts where an abbreviated EA was found unacceptable for a new mine under construction. The impact? An extended period of construction postponement to facilitate public review prior to approval/rejection by CEAA. my disgustingly simplied upper bound of AUA SP value is as follows: i) Near term price of Mo to remain >= $30 ii) Operating costs closer to $10 per lb iii) Production of 14.4Mlbs early on = 7.3Mt @ 0.09% conc (latest drilling .16 - significant drilling at .08) iv) Moly stock PE average = 10 v) interest, taxes = 25% vi) O/S = 220M Earnings = 14.4M x (30-10) x 0.75 = 216MM EPS = 0.982 given PE=10, Upper bound of share price = $9.82 Or cash flow: Upper reasonable bound = 216MM x 15 / 220 OS = 14.72 But, hey, everyone can guess what will happen to commodities in a global slowdown AND the terms of the financing change every thing if they are unfavorable... Cheers, GM (completely ill-informed amateur)