Here is something...all of you may want to read...It is Deepcaster's latest Newsletter...which is a paid subscription! Deepcaster predicted the PM crash of Dec 4, 2009...
2 weeks before it happened! I may have to copy & paste in 2 parts...Here is PART 1...
Bag Of Gold
FEBRUARY2010 LETTER
UPDATEDFORECASTS & CARTEL INTERVENTIONAL POLICIES IN ACTION: SOME OBSERVATIONS
As backgroundfor our Updated Forecasts (below) it is important to consider how CartelInterventions affect and are affected by, Market Moves and Economic Conditions.
When oneMonitors the Relationships among the Moves in Major Market Sectors with an eyeto detecting Cartel Intervention one often finds the Moves have a Rhythm andcreate Patterns.
Observing thosePatterns often, but not always, provides the basis for Accurate Forecasts aboutthe Movements in those Sectors.
Developed inthis way, accurate Forecasts lead to the probability of Investment and TradingProfits, and protection against losses.
Consider forexample recent Gold Price Movements and Patterns.
As of the end ofNovember, 2009 Gold prices were in a relentless (apparently), multi-monthUptrend, breaching $1200/oz. Gold’s Fundamentals were (as they still are)extremely Bullish. And at that time (as Gold passed $1200/oz) the nextTechnical Target for a Gold Price Appreciation Level (Pause) was $1325ish.
At that timethere was a very Real Question about the capacity of The Cartel to implementanother Takedown of Precious Metals prices. Deepcaster was then on record assaying that The Cartel still had the firepower to implement at least one moreTakedown and possibly more.
The Question ofCartel Takedown Capacity was brutally resolved in early December when theCartel ripped down the Gold price some $50 in one day, a prelude to the ongoingTakedown leg to the low $1100s, where we are today.
But when onereviews the price action of the long-dated U.S. Treasury Securities Market inthat same time period one immediately sees a correlation with considerableInterventional Significance.
Long-dated (10and 30 years) U.S. Treasury Securities had also reached a peak (high price,low-yield) at the end of November, 2009.
But that uptrendabruptly reversed in early December to begin a six week or so downtrend (lowerprices, higher yields).
But according tothe Classical (i.e. in a Non-Interventional Universe) understanding of Goldprices, that Correlation (lowering Gold prices through December andlowering Bond prices through December) should NOT have happened.
Why?
Gold istraditionally (and in our view is legitimately) seen as the “go-to”Safe Haven Asset in times of:
- Crisis, and/or
- Excessive Borrowing and Spending and/or
- Excessive Fiat Money Creation. Surely, the Fall, 2009 period “qualified on all these counts.
On thatClassical theory, Gold should have continued its rise throughout December asU.S. Treasury paper was progressively devalued in the market place (due to 1, 2and 3 above) thus commanding higher yields.
But Gold did notcontinue its rise. Why not?
Clearly, it wastaken down by The Cartel for one simple reason which Deepcaster has repeatedlystated.
The Cartelcannot allow increasingly wide acknowledgement of Gold and Silver as theUltimate Stores and Measures of Value. Rather they must do everything they canto have their Treasury Securities (and Fiat Currencies) so regarded. Otherwisethe private for-profit Cartel loses Power and Profit.
Thus, from TheCartel’s perspective, during any period (e.g. December, 2009) when U.S.Treasury securities are being devalued (lower prices, higher yields) or areunder pressure to be devalued in the Market Place, Gold (and Silver) must betaken down also.
As well, whenlong-dated U.S. Treasuries are being strengthened (lower yields, higher prices)The Cartel in that case also has an incentive to take down Gold and Silverprices to underscore the message they wish to repeatedly send: U.S. TreasurySecurities and Fiat Currency are the Real Safe Haven Assets, Not Gold andSilver.
And so it wasduring December, 2009.
With thisbackground we can now address certain other relationships among key MarketSectors.
Gold and theEquities Markets
From anInterventional perspective (that is, from The Cartel’s Perspective) therelationship between the Gold prices and the Equities Markets is somewhat morecomplicated, but not much.
TheCartel’s Fundamental Corollary Principle (to the one just above) is thatGold (and Silver) must not be increasingly widely acknowledged as theUltimate Stores and Measure of Value vis-à-vis the Equity (paper!) Markets.
Thus during theEquities Markets run-up from the early March 2009 bottom, the Gold price waspermitted to run up too, at least until the beginning of December, 2009.
Conclusion: forForecasting purposes, assuming (see below) a vicious Equities Market Takedownis about to launch, it is probable the Gold Price Takedown (which we have alsoforecast) will launch also.
Indeed, theNegative Price Action of the Gold and Equities Markets today testifies to theTruth of this Corollary.