AVF on its own. With ER backed out, Q4 cf should be around $.06. In Q3 they projected ng declines to continue at 5%/quarter. With ER proceeds their working capital deficiency will be gone. However I don't imagine they'll go on a spending spree until this deal is finally put to bed one way or another, so production declines will continue. Will they continue to pay out $.035 monthly? Not for long, I don't imagine. On $.24 annualized cash flow, their targetted POR of 65% suggests a $.16 dividend, maybe $.04 per quarter. That would be 7% yield at $2.25. Once they start spending, they might get their cash flow back up to the $.30 area, depending on what they buy.
Right now we're basically looking at a roughly debt free company trading at 9 times cash flow, with a 175% POR. So the real question to me is, how good a job is this management team going to do in buying properties. I'm unconvinced. Posters have commented on the leverage of rising ng prices, but that applies to all ng producers. Is this your best choice?
I'm out now, having lost a bundle. I don't think the down side is done yet. Good luck. Billfox