Kermit the frog "Its not easy being green"
The toughest thing I had to learn over my 18 years of investing is thinking outside the box and often taking the contrarian view .Never being afraid to go against the herd when convinced of my facts.
The more BXI backs up over the next 60 days the louder the rants and taunts will get,especially from folks who have no idea what BXI is doing at the corporate or operating level.
How many of the ranting posters here have actually toured the plant and met with management and operating staff directly. How many have talked to Helm,and other industry players involved in protien production.
my guess is none
I have toured the plant on multiple occasions and it is impressive,but I recognized early it will take time to complete given the complexity. In fact given the task I remain amazed at how far and fast they have come,the team on the ground in that plant should be commended. Granted management should have messaged the completion more efficiently,a sore spot for many no question.
That said In the oil and gas industry I have yet to see a gas plant start on time and on budget. Those are known technologies,this is new and disruptive so one would assume there would be some delays. To expect other would be unrealistic at best.I chalk the communication issues up to a learning experience with a new technology and process. Plant 2 should be materially smoother.
Most of the analysts and PM's on Bnn have never seen or toured the plant they simply read the analyst reports from the analysts that cover the story and stamp an impression based on their investment criteria .
The ones that have have toured the facility generally have a very different and positive view.Find out who they are and then look at the portfolios they run. Understand why one guy would like it and another may dislike it,understand their investment criteria and thought process before you pass judgement.
Is it overpriced,if your using faulty metrics like some analyst reports I have seen recently you may draw that conclusion today.
If you believe they will have earnings and a new disruptive technology in the next 60-90-120 days,and a platform for explosive growth then were undervalued.
As this is still a pre earnings story,the tone will change once that picture changes and discount rates come off. will there be more dilution to get Minot done,don't know, maybe they strike a deal for another plant in europe and use some of that capital to fund Minot.
Who knows,but I bet we have a clearer picture in 60 days and if they are delivering product the share price will be materially different and so will financing arrangements.
what is the quality of the product,I can assure you it will be ideally suited for human consumption once the plant is certified in feb 2011,this is not agri food as some suggest,Helm would not waste their time if that were the case. BXI has an extensive lab and end user testing program that validates the quality of the products they intend to introduce through HELM. These are high quality high margin isolates.
guys who loved the stock in the summer now hate it and want to run and chase gold,silver,oil,the industry is full of folks who try to chase down those momentum rabbits after they have already run hard .
If you chase two rabits your likely to catch neither.
sage advice
Rant all you want,push the price lower ,lower,lower I will nibble away and await results in 60 days.As always one should have been looking in other areas months ago to maximize return while one remains patient on a story that simply will take a bit more time to mature.
day traders,do you thing,i hope it works for you flipping your $10,000 accounts around in hopes of one day making some money so you can join me on the beach.
remember Information arbitrage is the only way you make money in this game.
When you lack information you lack judgment,there are alot of guys on this blog in that camp,it is comical to see the rants,but also very dangerous if you take any of them to seriously.
For all the longs beware of the unconsious incompetent,they can be very costly.
Good luck
aloha