Before this is over......... BNP will defintely not be the last to succomb in this evironment. It will be YEARS before this sector recovers and falls back in favor with the Wall street types, IF it does at all. When it's all said & done, maybe after another decade transformation, the Canadain O&G sector will be shadow of it's former self where probably only 25% survive, will remain & operate. A dismal, bleak future for a once vibrant & booming industry, a really sad ending which could have been avoided or at least greatly mitigated.
Who's to blame for all this? Is BonaV partly responsible for the company's demise or is it fully their fault? Many people would quickly point the finger to one of these three possible culprits. The company themselves, The downfall in energy markets and Politics & energy policies. Like in many cases, most people would be wrong though. Even though all those were CONTRIBUTING factors in the downfall of the Canadian O&G industry, they were not the ROOT cause. I.E. the forest fire didn't begin there, it was just augmented & escalated with those factors. The inital fire was lit by Canadians themselves and therefore it's Canada's own populace that lead to the destruction of their own main exporting industry.
What? Some, if not many would say this is outlandish.....perposterous. Think about it, really. For more than 30 years now, Canada and its people (there's really NO Canadain people here just a mismash of immigrants imported from 100's of other place across the world with completely different attitudes, priorities, capacities & morales forced to live & work together. It worked beautifully for about 50-60 years after it began in 1900 up until and shortly after WW2. Sh*it really started to hit the fan when the late 60's & early 70's came as liberal gov'ts came in, this of course coincided with the women's movment & civil rights). Sorry for the long side note, but in order for people to understand what's going on here, you have to understand the past and its effects on future developments. Without knowing & understand past history, you cannot try to comprehend what's going on today.
BTW, before any SJWs or anyone else for that matter is quick to judge & label me for disparaging immigrants for societies ills or whatever else, I AM a decendant & the son of immigrants, so here's my middle finger to those ignorant enough to do so. Like all things, not everything is created equal, that includes immigrants. For those who fail to understand this comcept, i'll use this example. Both Lions & house cats are Felines (cats) no really major differences genetically but both are just still cats. You can go upto most dometicated house cats and pet them no problem, you TRY that with a lion (domesticated or not) you probably won't get your arm back. So what do cats & immigrants have to do with anything going on in the O&G industry? Some might say this is insane. Well, maybe to those with limited intellect or perception, it could be the case. But i'm getting to it.
Lions, tigers & bears.....oh my! When the Liberals came into power in Gov't in Canada and took control of EVERYTHING, things really started to changed. Remember folks, there's really no right wing Gov't in Canada like the Republicans in the US, i don't believe there was one since the 40's or 50'......i forget which. For the last 60 or 70 years, Canada really has only two different versions of the American equivalent of the Democratic party. One is more center, this is the different interations of the Conservative Party of Canada and the other is more left leaning, the Liberal Party of Canada. But basically every politician in Canada over that time is a Democrat with very liberal policies. The problem is that over those 70 or so years, the politicians have become increasingly libeal in their views & policies. Today what you have in Canada are the Conservatives who are basically the equivalent of the centrists Democratics in the US......the Pelosis, Schumers & Bidens. And then you have the Canadian Liberals which are the same as the extreme left leaning American Democrats.....the Sanders, Warrens ect.
Are we there yet? Yep..... coming to it. When these Liberals took over Gov't control after WW2 and in turn took control of such instiutions like Education and other critical systems of the Canadian economy & infrastructure, they started to dictate THEIR policy and the brainwashing of future generations began. Remember folks, this coincided with several other movements, both powerfull game changers in their own rights, the women's & civil right movements. All these three combined, with the massive immigration polices put in place over that period gave rise to Canada's population & attitudes you see today. VERY Liberal, VERY left leaning. The same thing was happening in the US, the difference being that they were more resistant to the changes because of several reasons. One being the more humongenous nature of the US and the other is the scale of their popluation among other factors. But don't be fooled though, it IS COMING to the US as it overtook Canada long ago, as we see with the events unfolding in the USA today and over the last 30 years.
So what does all this have to do with oil & gas? Well, like i said, when a huge bolder starts rolling down the hilltop, it is difficult if not practically impossible to stop. A real big snowball effect. With the power to brainwash & influence many young generation of Canadians and the power to import/mold a limitless amount of immigrants with no ties/loyalties to the country of destination, you can completely change a country and mold it/bend it to whatever will you desire. With power like that over a prolonged period, you create hordes of people that walk, eat & sleep like you do. So over 70 years, this process has repeated itself over many times in Canada and created the country, population with attitudes you see today. With this fact in mind and with the fact that the majority of Canadians (70%) today are very liberal, socially progressive, pro immigration AND totally green, evironmental fanactics completely against any fossil fuel use. So Canada is basically the same as California, the only difference being that it is its own country.
A recipe for disaster. Having a country which is not only resource rich, but greatly dependant on the exportation & revenues generate by those resources managed by a population brainwashed & trained to not only despise it and have great disdain for it but also to do EVERYTHING in its power to rid the country of it as promptly as possible. How do you think that was going to work out? Probably not very good i assume. People have to remember that since the mid to late 90's, Canada and it's liberal politicians have been trying to emulate the social policies & systems of Scandanavian countries, specfically Sweden & Norway. If you aren't aware about those policies or HOW those systems in place work, i suggest you look into it to see where Canada's own policies are headed to. It will be a big eye opener for some who are ignorant to that fact. As some might know, both those countries have gone TOTALLY GREEN in their views & policies, so much so that Norway has even banned any investment in Canada's reources industry. That's at the point of hypocrisy and stupidity we've reached, if no one knows the history of Norway's success.
So how does all that connect? Well, if i have to draw a picture or connect the dots for you then you will NEVER understand WHY the O&G industry in Canada has crumbled the way it did. Is there any hope left? Sure, but it is probably not when you expect or want. There will be some sort of an industry, there will be survivors BUT NOTHING like it use to be. This my friends is guranteed. Like i said above, Bona Vista will not be the last to go under as it was not the first either to do so in the last 5 years or so. But it was first one in a long string of failures to come in this next cleanup phase to come. As i had said (AND warned) over 6 months ago that Bnp would fail, i will now predict or at least flag a few others who might go the way of the dodo as well.
On the death watch list. There are a few very small microcaps who are close but not worth mentioning as they probably won't be noticed and most likely no one will care if they disappear. But some of the more notable players who are in trouble AND could possbily end up like BNP include Nuvista, Baytex, Meg Energy, Obsidian energy (former Penn west) which is coming off a bk years ago, Athacasca oil, Crescent point and Whitecap. There are few others but those are the most notable ones close to any sort of bankruptcy, insolvency or whatever other term you wish to use.
I suspect we will see at least two more BNP's before year end and if oil prices continue to trade at these levels past 2020, i gurantee you you will witness a whole slew of both Canadian & American companies follow suit. The difference here is that the Americans still have the tools, the capacity, evironment and the will to at least mitigate the damages and transform the industry to fit & operate in these times. Not to mention the backing of Gov't and at least a good portion of the population. Canada has NONE of that......Canada just has an country infested with ignorant, crazy SJW's with a Prijme minister and his cabinet all with the intent on disassembling the industry and replacing it with one that is illogical, really doesn't make sense but it completely fits their agenda & vision for the future of the country.
Long post, hope you enjoyed and hopefully gave you some insight on what's going on not only in the O&G industry but the country as a whole.
Good luck to all....