Oh dear , oh dear oh dear The most relevant data in todays press releasae is rather well disguised.
Take for example the quoted broken ore inventory of 3971 plus 4949 tons , or 8920 tons. Lets call this 9000 tons for simplicty. Now compare this value with the broken ore inventory reported in early April 2011 of 25,000 tons. Stockpile has dropped by 16,000 tons or 64%. What this means is that the milling rate has dramatically exceeded the mining rate. Co incidentally , the reported milling rate of 16,803 tons since April almost exactly matches this 16,000 to drop in the stockpile. This implies that the new reported value of the stockpile represents the total ore mined over the last 10 months. 9000 tons mined over a 10 month period is of course 900 tons per month or 30 tons per day!!!!! This is pathetic and unless the miners really pick up the pace, the mill will be shutdown due to lack of ore supply.
Now lets look at milling values. To Jan 31st management reports 16,803 tons milled. in early Sept 2011, the same management reported that to the end of August milled tonnage was 8579. Clearly the tonnage miled over the last 5 months has been 8224 tons .......... OR LESS THAN 55 tons per day. Again this is appalling for a mill rated at 100 tons per day that supposedly has the ability to be expanded to 280 tpd.
Now lets look at reported grades. To end of August 2011, reported head grade was 0.254 ounces per ton. To end of Jan 2012 reported head grade is 0.264 ounces per ton. Does anyone realy think that this management will EVER get head grades upto even 0.35 , never mind the 0.5 ounces per ton they keep aluuding to in press releases.
Now lets make an assumption that nothing dramatic changes, either for the better or the worse. If the mill continues to outperform the miners at 55-30 or 25 tons per day, the mill is out of ore in 9000/25 or 360 days. Lets say the operation gets shut down in Oct 2012, in order to avoid all the nasty weather that has been causing frozen lines.
Check out my post of 4/4/2011, " Broken Ore Inventory" . Looks like I might be accused of having an accurate crystal ball