BXE scam...part of web-site taken down an hour ago ..
BXE...Albertan blarney yet again
Can it be clearer............. The company would have gotten notice of production restrictions. So whatever restrictions were in place would have been known by the company at the time of the q1 release. I believe they were looking for alternate processing capacity and could not find any, and perhaps Blaze took longer to take up production than they thought. The company could have reported in q1 what they had in terms of processing capacity rather than what they hoped to get to keep guidance as is. I do think it is rather telling that the company took down their old presentation with a note indicating a new one would soon be posted. Why do you think they did that if the knew nothing changed. Upon careful reflection I decided to sell the shares I purchased today for a tidy profit and will wait to add until I listen to next weeks Conference call. I just have some questions to which I would like clarification before adding yet more to my holdings.
Macquarie on BXE Bellatrix Exploration
Guidance down on downtime
Event
Bellatrix announced it is reducing 2014 production guidance to 41.0mboe/d from
42.5
–43.5mboe/d as a result of unscheduled temporary plant turnarounds. The
company expects 2Q to average 38.0mboe/d and exit guidance of 47.0mboe/d is
unchanged. The company reiterated capex guidance of $440m.
The company’s plant turnarounds included May 4–15 maintenance at the Sand
Creek plant; extended downtime at the Strachan plant (expected back on 7 June);
a shut-in from May 12
–14 at the MBL gas plant to replace cold boxes on the deep
cut facility; and turnaround at the Harmattan plant from April 28
–May 9. The
cumulative impact was a reduction of 4,064boe/d in volumes for the month of May.
The company expects to bring on production as constraints are removed in
early June.
The pipeline to the Blaze gas plant is now handling 70mmcf/d and the company
plans to increase deliveries to 90mmcf/d over the next two weeks.
Impact
Guidance – negative. While guidance has been reduced to 41.0mboe/d, we were
already below guidance at 41.5mboe/d on our forecasts. We believe management
is being prudent in communicating the 2Q constraints. To remain conservative,
we are reducing our production estimate by 3% to 40.5mboe/din 2014. Our D/CF
forecast increases slightly to 1.5x (from 1.4x) which remains in line with the peer
group at 1.5x.
Not based on well performance. We take comfort that reduced guidance is not a
result of underperforming wells but rather unscheduled turnarounds that were
beyond company control. As shown in Fig 2 below, Bellatrix Cardium well results
since 2012 have far exceeded our type curves.