Bellatrix Exploration Ltd (Canada) BXEFF

Cold blast = NG price increasing. BXE should benefit

[graffiti99]

AECO has lifted to C$2.05/mcf today from $1.65 a week ago. Once we see a few weeks of big draws in the US, we should see AECO north of $3.00. Also, investors underestimate the ability of BXE to bring wells on efficiently and increase their cashflow. I expect BXE to easily exchage immediately due debt for longer term at a modest increase in cost by Feb.  NG prices will remain elevated for at least the next few weeks, probably well into February. I am betting that BXE will punch its way out of the corner with increased cashflow, earnings and service its debts. 

Bought more today.

 

I asked their investor relations department about their debt covenants earlier in December. Here is the thread:

 

===

 

"I’m a BXE investor. Can you tell me if there are any debt / equity covenants that BXE has entered into? With the share price now at .66 i would like to confirm. On the website presentation I see only debt / Ebita covenants. I would like to confirm this before I buy more shares. Thanks in advance"

 

BXE response, sent very next day at 9:00 AM:

 

"Hi Neil, firstly thank you for your support as a shareholder.

Bellatrix has only two financial covenants.  Both are Debt to EBITDA covenants.  We remain well within both covenant level.  At Q3/18 our calculated metrics and covenants were:

- First lien debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.24x (covenant level maximum 3.0x)

- Senior debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.78x (covenant level maximum 5.0x)

 

We have no debt/equity covenants.

 

I hope that helps. 

 

Steve

 

Steve Toth, CFA

Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Development

 

Suite 2100, 800 5th Avenue SW

Calgary, AB T2P 3T6

W: 403-750-1270

C: 403-850-7384

F: 403-264-8163

[e-mail]"

[Just1Question]

I’m with you Neil - I picked up 20,000 shares today at .59   I had liquidated my BXE after the LNG Canada announcement turned into a sell the news event .... - and now bought in at approximately half price.  Hopefully this will be near the bottom - but who knows.  I feel the delisting from New York is a virtual certainty so everyone is likely to be aware of that and have priced that

[1condor]

Just1Question...I am not sure why you would buy the stock as it continues to fall...down to 57 cents today (another 5 percent). I hope the money you are using is speculation money and you are willing to lose it all. I bought some at 80 cents for a trade but got stopped out at 72 for a loss. Perhaps another trade may present itself in the future but the SP is not there yet.

[Just1Question]

Agreed it is speculative - the old adage of trying to catch a falling knife. Risk money for sure - but then again $12,000 isn’t going to make or break me. Cheers 

[graffiti99]

Painful to see the quoted price so low and continually dropping yes. Although you may question why you would buy the stock as the price continues to fall, one reason is...you shouldn’t let yourself be a servant to the market, the market and it’s price should serve you the investor. The price was irrationally low at 1.00 and above. Stock market prices are not tethered to any valuation one assigns

[Just1Question]

.... And another 40,000 shares today at .57 and .58  Natty Gas is down today, but wait for end of week. - I'm happy to hear anyone's well reasoned logic on either side of the table.  Cheers.

[Samd35]

I am watching market very closely for aeco... Usa increase import of Canadian NG 18 % more this month ...they might continue importing extra for winter..plus supplie of aeco is dropping companies cutting production... aeco should do better this year...we should be very close to bottom.. Don't sell at loss...

[maldwyn]

I bought in earlier at what I thought might be a bottom only to bail out at a loss. Some things that are worrying: 1) There is no dividend to support the share price and the book value doesn't seem to put any floor under the SP. 2) With so much supposed equity it seems to me they should be able to sell off a fraction of their assets and be debt-free thus solving their biggest problem. To me