RE:Help!!They have an existing business that does $14+ ltm Revenue. So that's worth at least 30 to 60m. That means BioCloud is being valued about $30 to $60m given the current market cap.
They need one large order to get the ball rolling, let's say this can bring the cost of a unit down to $8k CAD. So if they can sell 3750 units at this price Biocloud is selling for 1x to 2x Revenues.
Let's say net profit margin on BioCloud is 15%, ,meaning these 3750 units will net them $4.5m to $9m of cashflow - so P/E for BioCloud is 6.6, if they can only ever sell 24k units over the life of the product, and the IP is worth zero, you get your market cap back in cash.
I think it's very unlikely that they only ever sell 24k units. If they make one large sale to get this ball rolling, this stock is worth $10 to $15 very conservatively. If they don't make a sale and bioCloud is worth zero, this stock is worth $1 to $2.
The asymetry of the risk/reward on this stock is nuts, it's completely mispriced.
The vaccine news has obviously tempered expectations for KNR, but c'mon, those expectations were exceedingly low, you aren't paying up for expectations in this name. Let's think about what the vaccines really mean to KNR.
Reallity is that the vaccines are a fall 2020 event, Moderna and Pfizer together will have produced what, 500-600m doses by 2021? At 2 Doses per treatment, I don't think that even covers the USA if all goes as planned. There are more vaccines in the pipelines but governments know that they can't just wait with their heads in the sand until such a time when we can get that herd immunity. Even then, are these vaccines really 95% effective in seniors...probably not. Vaccines are targetting the spike protein, hoping that they virus doesn't mutate, but it likely will, there is a good chance we will need Gen2 or Gen3 vaccines to put CoV2 to bed. The virus will probably still be present in our environments for several more years, there will likely be segments of the population which will still be vulnerable to the disease until it gets eliminated completely.
Now this IS an investment and my thesis might end up being wrong, if KNR was a poker hand, it would be a full house, with a giant stack of chips piled in the kitty. It's likely going to work out, but I've lost to 4 of a kind before, doesn't mean that placing the bet was the wrong decision.
Yobigs wrote: I notice the majority of you are optimistic for the next two weeks
personally I do not see that knr will go up and cannot exceed 3.5 $ at the moment
am I wrong?