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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Newlox Gold Ventures C.LUX

Alternate Symbol(s):  NWLXF

Newlox Gold Ventures Corp is a Canada based environmental reclamation and mineral recovery company and is in the business of undertaking projects for the purpose of operating tailings remediation and fold recovery in Costa Rica.

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Newlox Gold Ventures > ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson
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ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

brewster123 (93) | July 15, 2022 04:48 pm

Ryan Jackson will be hosting a Q & A session on July 19th at 12:00pm PST.

Register to save your seat at https://lnkd.in/gpiR6yg5

RE:ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

JayBanks (146) | July 23, 2022 12:06 pm

So by the fact no one has mentioned any feedback from this Q&A, does it mean no one watched it (I didn't as I was at work) or nothing interesting was said?

RE:RE:ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

SmilingDog (106) | July 24, 2022 10:14 am

I thought there were many important takeaways. Plant 1 is around 50tpd and more importantly (given it is 2x the size + what expansion plants will be modeled after) plant 2 is nearing completion of construction, will be commissioned and start ramping this year. I thought Ryan sounded very confident around everything. No doubts both plants will reach targeted production levels.

There's not much discussion here on LUX - I recommend checking out the Penny Queen discord channel where there is very active conversation - here's thte link: https://discord.gg/dsCDkEwm

RE:RE:RE:ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

JayBanks (146) | July 24, 2022 11:10 am

SmilingDog wrote: I thought there were many important takeaways. Plant 1 is around 50tpd and more importantly (given it is 2x the size + what expansion plants will be modeled after) plant 2 is nearing completion of construction, will be commissioned and start ramping this year. I thought Ryan sounded very confident around everything. No doubts both plants will reach targeted production levels.

There's not much discussion here on LUX - I recommend checking out the Penny Queen discord channel where there is very active conversation - here's thte link: https://discord.gg/dsCDkEwm

 

Thank you for the take always, I haven't looked for a video on it yet but there likely isn't one...

Plant 2 was supposed to be completing construction last November-December, that's a rather large pi$$off that it's +8 months behind because of a major part needing to be re-manufactured...

There is anouther frustration for me that the 'plan' they laid out and were pushing for a couple years was the completion of 2 full-size plants per year at various locations (which I thought was a bit aggressive this early in the companies life), we have had 2 new countries signed on for future, but I haven't heard anything about plants 3-4 placement, let alone construction. They have the funds in the bank to be constructing the next 2 plants so that's not an issue, I don't see why plant 3 shouldn't be in construction phase at this moment, yet I don't think I've even heard of a confirmed location yet as I thought it was going to be in Costa Rica for a couple more plants, but they have announced Brazil's eagerness to start ASAP and now Colombia being worked on...

We are starting to get well off the targets I signed up for, Covid can be blamed for part of it, but with other smaller issues relating to reporting and delaying other things, it's seeming like incompetence at some level is an issue and I don't know where in the chain it stems from but Ryan Jackson is the man at the top and seems like the fall guy, maybe they need more help somewhere in the chain.

I love the plan and outlook for what the company is working on and am trying to talk myself into adding shares at these attractive levels, but the management inability to keep things inline is holding me back.

RE:RE:RE:RE:ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

SmilingDog (106) | July 25, 2022 10:15 am

Your concerns are understandable. There have been significant delays at Newlox. However, when I look back at the chain of events/evdience, I put the majority of the blame on supply chain issues post-COVID and into 2022. At this point I have countless touch points on this, including numerous companies and supply chain managers who have all confirmed that to order industrial equipment/chemicals/etc over the last 2+ years has been incredibly difficult (i.e. 1-2+ year wait times). 

For Newlox, this came in the form of their ball mill for plant 2. They had a ball mill secured, but given the scarcity of this component, someone else offered a much higher price and the supplier reneged on the deal. That left Ryan scrambling to find another + having it shipped to Costa Rica, which all obviously takes a lot more time. 

These supply chain distruptions also affected the scale up of plant 1. When scaling up new industrial processes it's almost a given that you're going to run into hurdles. For Newlox this came in the form of an adjustment to their reagent. In normal times they could probably have this reagent procured in a relatively short time. Unfortunately during this supply chain havoc, it took way longer.

With all of this said, could communication have been WAY better? Absolutely. And Ryan acknolwedges this. He has admitted that he failed to factor in enough buffer time and uncertainty for post-COVID issues. My hope is he's leaerned his lesson.

So the last 12+ months have not been ideal. But I also don't look at what happened in regards to delays and believe we should be discounting the success of this company to the extent the market is. Ryan on the call had no hesitantion and was very confident when asked about his confidence in plant 1 and plant 2 fully scaling.

Plant 1 is at around 50tpd and Ryan is still very confident in hitting 80tpd. But this isn't even the real story here. It's plant 2, which will SOON be fully constructed and starting to be commissioned, with the ramp up beginning this year and full production likely early next. That's the story because it's an incremental 20k oz of gold (vs. 2.5k oz) and is also the model they are using for plant 3 (in Columbia). 

Luckily, plant 2 is way more straight forward with a consistent ore (vs. variable tailings). So the ramp is should go smoother. 

All in all, an investment comes down to what you're paying for it. At around 2x next year's EBITDA potential (around $11M), I think the market is factoring in way too much risk here. Why couldn't this stock trade at 10x? ESG friendly + trajectory to double EBITDA each year going forward. If I slap a 10x valuation on plant 1 + 2 EBITDA that implies a $0.65 stock price or over 300% upside. And this is a near term situation. 2023 is 5 months away.

That's a lot of potential upside over a very short amount of time.

Hope that helps.

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

JayBanks (146) | July 25, 2022 04:19 pm

I agree Plant 1 to me is experimentational, what it produces is rather meaningless but the fact it works and they can test and engineer systems off of it in my opinion is the true value of that unit.

Plant 2 being the scale up is where my interest is, that's where we make money and know how to put subsequent plants together and run dirt and turn us into generating revenue until the next plants are constructed to start making us solid profitability wise (altho I believe we will be running small profits when plant 1 and 2 are fully running at targets)

When your playing with penny stocks alotta noise gets made to get the name out there and to hype investors, a lot of it is white noise especially on fringe companies. I don't believe Newlox falls into that catigory as they have some pretty solid backing in that they need no financing to move forward with thier next 2 units to be constructed, it's just a case of permitting and actual construction. I find most Newlox news to be unsatisfactory in timing and content. They had a planned timeline for construction of unit 2, we didn't really get an update until the timeline was beyond late when we were told 'we are behind schedule', and then it was a few months later we were told actually why. Also we would get updates on new location interests when we were expecting construction and commissioning news.

Construction should actually be the shortest timelined item as they are basically building flat concrete pads and fastening a semi-portable units and throwing on a roof on it, as you stated getting the fabricated units built, shipped and commissioned is the difficult part in the construction phase, but the fabrication part should already be ready before concrete is poured. They were planning 2 units per year for the next 5-6 years (over a year ago), units 3 and 4 should be pretty much in boxes ready to ship and 5 in contract queue, with the only question being where is the address of the dirt piles they are sticking on the boxes lol

I like your maths, I bought in at just below 26 cents figuring there was a value pre construction of unit 2 of 35-40 cents, but now with revenues starting actual maths can take out my figuring lol. Big picture I was looking for this to be over 10x what I paid for in 2-3 years out with the possibility of being 100x on total return eventually... That said I have no timeline on my investment, I would like to see the gold produced and eventually receive planned shareholder returns, but way forward looking, with an improvement in R&D as the projects continue, I believe that the process or a similar one might be useful to a more wider range climate profile which opens up more possibilities on where units could be placed/utilized in the future.

Very excited holder here (wanna be a rising stakeholder), just very frustrated by things that should not be issues like game plan information and updates, I can't influence them, I just wanna know where they are at when appropriate be it quarterly or when phases are completed/issue is resolved. (They did tell us when the new Ball plant and reagents were procured and on the way but I think that was in a quarterly or the yearly) Don't put out a specific press release telling me Brazil is showing interest when I'm on the edge of my seat waiting to hear Unit 2 is installed and starting to be commissioned, tell me about interested locations in the quarterly news notes.

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:ZOOM meeting next week with Ryan Jackson

SmilingDog (106) | July 25, 2022 05:34 pm

Yep I can understand why this has been frustrating. But, looking at this as a relatively new, unbiased, objective, investor, the opportunity right now seems better than it ever has, given we're receiving the same upside, over a very near term, at a very discounted valuation.

Plant 2 has been very delayed for reasons outside of their control. But now they are back on track, fully financed, and months away from production at plant 2. Plant 2 is not doing anything ambitious from a technical perspective (just very smart from an market opportunity standpoint) and so the commissioning and ramp up should be pretty straight forward. 

Given the steeply discount valuation, and very large near (and long) term upside, I'm also very excited about the prospects here.