RE: $7.71 Net Book Value plus intangibles...heresI don't get your numbers, but maybe I am just too tired. anyways after this closes they will in effect be out of date because the 4.454Bil in assets will drop to approx 3.1B with about 735 mil less debt/cash.
But in effect there book value will drop more than the 735, because they will lose 30% of the assets they have in the project 1.336-735=601. that is 601 mil decrease in your book value calc. well they probably have some office or misc assets, so that simple math won't be very accurate but will be close enough for this discussion.
It doesn't matter because if the upgrader isn't working they will go to zero eventually it will just take a few more months to get there.
I just think Nexen got a very sweet deal, as they bought 30% of opti and didn't touch any of the debt or bonds.
An analyst on the CC asked them about paying of the bonds at 50 cents on the dollar. but if they sell out a controlling share of opti, the bond holders will have to get paid out at 101. So Nexen got almost the most they can get with out dealing with that issue. the fact that the bonds are trading at 50 should be a huge warning sign of caution. You should be wary about dumping alot on this gamble. I have some in it, because if the upgrader works they are said to be the lowest cost producer in that case. If that happens I will be a happy camper, if not 'cest la vie.
the confrence call left me no reason to be more positive than I was before it.
Remember 15% of 50% is really 30% and that is what the sold, as I don't think they have anyother assets.
Disclaimer I have an entry position, and am slightly underwater
Not bashing the stock for the sake of it but to conduct a constructive conversation to learn a bit more about this company.
Good Investing,
Lightning