RE: Pricing OPC7270,
Sorry bud, your quite off. All costs will equate to ~$55/bl at full rates. OPC is still in the red until they start pulling ~50K bls if bitumen out of the ground.
Here is a posting I put in a few weeks ago;
"Just to recalculate, if opti needs $55/bl to break even at full rates. $55 X 60,000
refined = $3.3 million/day.
So at $80 oil we need; 3.3 million/80 = 41250 bl/s/day refined to break even. That's 49500 bls/day of bitumen.
That is not including hedging, but if only 3000 barrels are barrels are hedged at $67, then take away $13 X 3000 = $40K/day . Soo to make up that 40k loss, add $40k/$80 = 500 more barrels/day. So that now brings us to a little more than 50 K bitumen/day to break even. I don't think that this an unreasonable expectation for year end.
Next year if oil is $90, and the hedges are gone, break even could be 3.3million/90 = 37000 refined or 44000 bitumen. So I'm not sure where you are getting 58 k bls/day from.
If we could get close to $90 oil next year, that makes us roughly ..say..20k barrels/day (X 35%) of profitable oil average for the year. That equates to 20k/day X 90 X 360 X .35 = 227 million or 81 cents/share gross. So 50 cents eps after taxes is not out of the question. I would also expect some interest write offs as well."
So fundamentally, if you look at profit alone, $7.50 sp for next year is possible. But as of this moment, there is no net profit to calculate a sp from.
But,
NAV was $30/share before the sale and share issue. It's now around $15/share. If a new upgrader is built, not only does the upgrader improve the asset value of the stock, so does the value increase for the oil in the ground. If everything goes as planned, this stock could be worth $25 dollars again in 5-6 yrs. If oil prices continue to climb, then add that on too. If all goes well, opti's portion of the upgrader should not require much more financing as they will have profits to cover those costs. It's all uphill from here, but the hill gets less steep everyday.
Giver