RE: RE: RE: RE: OPC Strategic Alternatives ResultsWelcome back Attorney. I last estimated 45,000-50,000 bpd by year end. If they had to cut back steam to the wells last month due to the pipeline/upgrader issues, we may be only 40-45k. We need a production update to get a better read on that.
SAGD ramp rates may be a little slower than normal, but we need to keep in mind that they are trying to mine some of the thickest bitumen ever mined via SAGD. So knowing that, the is still no indicator to show that there is a problem and in fact I would say that the ramp rate is right on track...for the api rating of the bitumen involved.
I'm not sure if you could say that esp's always make a wider well, but I do believe that if you can run the well cooler (not too cool) you can get a more uniform well along the horizontal section of the string and avoid any steam short circuiting and build a longer lasting well. I suppose that if the temp gradient, vertically is more uniform, (having a cooler well via esp's) you could also get a more uniform width to height ratio as you wouldn't have all of the hottest steam heating the crap out of the roof, causing more condensed emulsion to flow down the walls and and limit wall heat transfer.
Being that some wells are already making 1500 bls, I see no reason why we wouldn't average 800 from each well sometime next spring.
Giver