RE: New Balance SheetI agree, great discussions here guys.
Just to put my twist on market valuation, I'll re-itterate that a few years back the NAV on opti was $25-$30 and they had more debt and less production. With the 15% sale and extra shares, and the new debt reduction the NAV should be around $12-$15 .......based on 280 million old shares. This will continue to climb with oil prices and as new assets are built....especially at kinosis as producable oil becomes worth 5X more than just recoverable oil with no ground assets. So this NAV should double to at least $24 as kinosis starts to come on line. Eventually EPS will come into play, as well, and grow from there.
Again, all with old shares. NEW shares (280/100) should be worth 2.8 X the old shares.....one could argue less as the 25 million warrents are issued, but they are bringing in 1/2 a billiion dollars worth of equity with them so it's a bit of a wash. So NAV wise, using the numbers above (which puts OPTI's value at $4 to $5b) I see us sitting at or above the strike price quite quickly next year.
We all knew that a restructure was likely.......I was hoping for at least 10% so I think this is good.
If one invested $100k at $1, they get the option to purchase 9000 shares @ $22 for $200k. To get your money back, the stock new stock price will have to hit $33.33 to put $300k back into your pocket. That like an EPS of 2 or 3 bucks with only 100 million shares floating around. ......so 2 or 300 million profit.......say 45-50 k bls at these oil prices. Maybe less if oil still climbs as predicted.
Actually, if you look at my old full on everything included break even chart; one could use that to find a matching EPS (~ $1.50) to correlate with the new strike price......roughly, and every $50 mil profit increas after that point could equate to $50-75K money back to you.........if you have 9000 new shares.
So based on EPS, new OPTI shares should trade at our strike price when;...again ballpark #'s
$150 oil, 30K bitumen.
$140 oil, 32K bitumen.
$130 oil, 34.5K bitumen
$120 oil, 37.4K bitumen
$110 oil, 40.8K bitumen
$100 oil, 44.9K bitumen
$90 oil, 55 K bitumen
$80 oil, 56.2K bitumen
$70 oil, 64.3K bitumen
But, if the market bases the sp on NAV, it should hold there or higher, right off the start....epecially when they have the cash on hand to fund kinosis already.
My 2c
Giver.