On JonMajorLondon's Board HistoryI drop in and out of this Board infrequently, though have found some of the discussion to be quite good. Full disclosure. I am long CNL. Owned interest in the buritica mine prior to the formation of CNL. Have no relationship with CNL other than stock ownership.
Recently, in my opinion, this board has been less exchange of information and more about bias and misrepresentation, and at times bullying. The posts of JonMajorLondon are a good example. I have clearly wasted an hour putting together a reverse barometer on CNL. Unfortunately, the result of such posts are contrary to the purpose of the board, which should be constructive information sharing. Anyway, here are the prognostications and analysis of JonMajorLondon.
October 11, 2015: Debut post attacking Sussman for the Colossus debacle and mischaracterizing CNL as a Zombie company, apparently incorrectly understanding Rick Arnold’s original definition of a company with negative working capital (i.e. more dead than alive.) By the way, see Rick’s excellent Op-Ed: “Zombie” Canadian mining company, Infinito Gold, stalks Costa Rica. https://www.ticotimes.net/2015/05/20/op-ed-zombie-canadian-mining-company-stalks-costa-rica
JonMajorLondon’s first prognostication that CNL would go broke in 6 months, 8 months ago. November 05, 2015: States
“Q3 Statements Coming out today…it may be their last before they are delisted from the TSX Mainboard market and become a Penny Stock in USD terms…” Well, I guess in all fairness the stock dipped below 1 USD twice for a very brief period. Obviously the rest is far from correct.
November 07, 2015:
States :
“At the current burn rate 10-14 M per quarter company will run out of its $33 million before securing EP, even if by some Miracle secure this by June 16.” The actual burn rate since the drilling and other infrastructure work has slowed and is actually closer to 7.5 M. We are now basically at June and the company still has 22.5 M as of 3/9/16, stated to last until H1 2017. As an excercise you can simply plot the available cash as a function of time and the company's estimate is very reasonable.
States:
“Still has 50% level for the stock to Fall Further to a reasonable level in line with its High Level of Risk!” At that point the stock was at one of its two historic low points. The second was after the PINES process broke down. Other than the slight dip after the PINES news the stock has been consistently and substantially higher.
November 9: States:
“with Continental it’s clear they have 6 months left of liquidity at their current (lowered) Burn Rate-hence the stock will continue diving!” Well, it’s been six months and there is still more than six months of cash in the bank, and the stock has more than doubled.
January 20: In a lengthy discussion with Stockhouse board member KPSing, JonMajorLondon discusseses his close understanding of the situation on the ground at Buritica and the fact that he has operated mines in Latin America. His conclusion is
“Based on my analysis, the shares will converge closer to 1.11 CAD… and should not pop over 1.55 CAD.” Well, CNL is at about 2.8 CAD at the moment.
JonMajorLondon lambasts KPSing as being
RETARDED for discussing the common practice of bribery in Latin American business. I haven’t seen KPSing on the board in some time, which is unfortunate as he, in my opinion, used the board for the purposes of information exchange and thoughtful discussion.
January 20: Advises KPSing
“my suggestion if you do hold stock is that you consider taking a loss, if this escalates the company could be delisted from the mainboard and spiral out of control…” At that time CNL was at its low point for the last year, 1.3 CAD, a month later it was at 1.8 CAD, now it’s at 2.8. The was quintessential buy high, sell low advice.
February 24:
69% Dilution. DILUTION IS HERE.
March 8, 2016:
At least 50% dilution. March 16, 2016: Stated:
“I’ve already confirmed the story: Ari is Making a move out of CNL- I hear he’s fundraising on the street for another venture in the Tech Space.” April 6, 2016 After convincing fellow Stockhouse board member Max to sell his holding the following is stated:
“Dear Max. There’s more bad new to come locally in the next two weeks. Trust me, the party is not over. I know what I’m saying to you and the situation is dire locally.” Over the next month the news was that a Martin Carrizosa had been named to the board of Directors and the Columbian Government, continuing national efforts to control and legalize mining, was initiating a joint operation to halt illegal mining in the Buritica area. This can only be a positive as reflected by the spike in the stock that occurred after the event. So a month later we are still waiting for the bad news?
April 6, 2016: States:
“Max, the courts in Columbia will rule to take this back to the Regional Authority for permitting, which will be a PROBLEM for CNL, they will not receive their permit in 2016! You did right buy selling, there’s more bad news coming soon.” When and if the permit will be granted is the central question at the moment, especially with the government stepping in with regards to the artisanal mining issue. However, this statement ignores the fact that the local government has changed and is now in alignment with the national government that is very pro-mining, especially with the down-turn in oil.
April 6, 2016:
States “30-50% dilution.” As you see from the simplistic calculation JonMajorLondon has carried out to determine “dilution” (Feb 24, 69%, March 8, at least 50%, now 30-50%) as risk is retired and other factors such as gold price and mine quality increase the share price increases making it easier and less “dilutive” to raise capital, by whatever means. What would the share price increase be once the permit is granted, 10, 20, 30%. What will the share price be once the mine is funded to construction? It should also be clear that dilution to raise required capital for construction is not the only option and not a bad option…..this is a commonly used tool and should add value to the shareholder.
April 8 2016
“Do your Own Research…CNL is in for a Big Fall” “stay tuned for news”
Well, it’s been a month, no bad news. 35% increase is stock value on healthy volume.
May 2, 2016: States Along with the usual,
“Share price is ralying (sic) from gold spike-not from a mine being in sight…..It’s a Good Short if Anything!” This is simply an incorrect assessment. The surge in gold has been a recent event. Over the period from 26 February to 26 April gold has been in a trading range (1240 USD). It broke out on April 28
th. In mid-March Cgoof was around 1.5 USD and then began a steady increase with a positive derivative on healthy volumes. Surely the last few days have been positively effected by the gold surge, but this has been only a small part (~8% of the ~82% gain since Feb 26
th) of the upswing that has occurred over a period starting with the CEO summit presentation, the affirmation of the feasibility study, and the news regarding the government intervention with illegal miners.