GREY:CLLZF - Post by User
Comment by
planet51aon Jul 11, 2009 8:57am
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Post# 16131403
RE: RE: Something to think about!
RE: RE: Something to think about!I like the points that you make regarding Nexen, with the problems slowly getting ironed out at the Long Lake refinery and Nexen/OPC lag in field production with very high SOR's, at present it makes CLL's feedstock very attractive . Nexen/OPC cant run a 70K plant on 15K of in house feedstock which is why I think CLL is enjoying the benefit of marketing its bitumen to Nexen ,in my opinion CLL is the "third party" supplier to Nexen/OPC while Nexen/OPC straighten out their field production. this allows CLL the benefit of the short shipping of their production, the uncertainty of the field production and lag of this production gives CLL the perfect opportunity to build its production during this time and hopefully cashflow, while I do not hope for a take over from Nexen or others at these market conditions others may not agree especially those that have purchaced shares at these low prices, makes a 2.00 buy out attractive to some, it would be way below true value. In my opinion if Management can bring Algar in "ahead of schedule and under budget" we should still be valued in the 5/6 range even with the dilution but as always everything is tenuously dependant on market conditions and the need for focused flawless execution of the build at Algar. They have a good time window to do it and management should focus on getting it done.
In my opinion the 12 month time window involves:-
-Nexen/opc continued purchase of bitumen production from pod one
-Flawless construction and start-up of Algar-"ahead of schedule and under budget"
- Stable WTI prices above $50/bbl and favourable crack spreads
-Stable pod one production 9 to10 K
-PDP successful drilling in Columbia and asset sale at good value
-Montana refinery providing positive cash flows from asphalt sales
Probably more but I think the above points are the most important in my opinion for shareholders to enjoy the full value of this company. In my opinion $80 oil would make everything a lot easier