David Pescod cheers,
Lucy.
8/16/05
CONNACHER OIL & GAS (T-CLL) $1.98 +0.15
It was back in May that Kerry Sully the ex-head of Ranchmen’s
Resources (which he sold to Total for a very nice number many
years ago) came back from the COPIC conference and suggested
Connacher Oil and Gas was a story people simply had to
have.
We are glad we listened to him and quoted him widely. COPIC
is the big shindig where Canada’s oil and gas producers get
together and show their wares and Connacher’s big new asset,
was at the perfect time picking up a huge chunk of land south
of Fort McMurray right on power, right on the highway and everything
else, that had heavy oil.
At the time, Sully seemed overly aggressive to some of us, as
he suggested this project could be worth as much as $2.50 to
$4.00 a share, by the fourth quarter of 2006. Needless to say,
since May many things have changed, not the least of which is
the very high price of oil. Who would have thought we’d see oil
at $66.00.
Meanwhile, the take-out of that dull/boring heavy oil company,
Deer Creek, and the market capitalization given it, has suddenly
re-valued all the potential heavy oil producers out there.
We are going back to Kerry over the next days to help develop
our “Gung-Ho Portfolio” and what we can tell you so far, is that
because of the changes (and yet to come is the visit by Vice
President Dick Cheney who himself is an oil and gas man and
will once again focus on the oil sands) this sector continues to
gain more interest.
One asset of Connacher compared to some of the big ones, is
that much of their engineering is off the rack and some of their
facilities can almost be built in modular form and could escape
the massive over-runs that are starting to get some attention.
When you see cost over-runs of 40%, 60% or 80% like we are
seeing on some of the big oil sands projects, that could very
much affect profitability at the end of the day.
If Connacher could be up and running by the last quarter of
next year, obviously Connacher would be in the lead of many
others.
Sully gives us a new target of $5.00 by March of this coming
year and he assumes that over the next four to six months,
EUB approval and environmental investigations, will be positively
dealt with. There is also the financing to get the project
up and going.
When we ask Sully if he has a second pick these days, he
points to Oilexco and suggests their methodical exploration of
the North Sea still has him liking that story a lot.
This newsletter is solely the work of the author for the private information of clients. Although the author is a registered investment advisor at Canaccord Capital Corporation
(“Canaccord Capital”), this is not an official publication of Canaccord Capital and the author is not a Canaccord Capital analys t. The views (including any recommendations)
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e-mail: debbie_lewis@canaccord.com August 16, 2005 e-mail: david_pescod@canaccord.com
Connacher Oil & Gas
www.connacheroil.com