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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Computer Modelling Group Ltd CMDXF


Primary Symbol: T.CMG

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. is a Canada-based global software and consulting company. The Company is engaged in the development and licensing of reservoir simulation and seismic interpretation software. The Company also provides professional services consisting of highly specialized support, consulting, training, and contract research activities. The Company operates through two segments: CMG... see more

TSX:CMG - Post Discussion

Computer Modelling Group Ltd > Q3 price action - heavy selling
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Post by malx1 on Feb 08, 2024 3:02pm

Q3 price action - heavy selling

With an hour to go, almost $5mm worth of shares have sold today, pushing the price into $8's.......

Looks like an overreaction to a Q3 that showed material revenue growth combined with serious erosion of CMG's profit margins.

Free cash flow flat year-over-year.


I think the reaction here is overdone.   

After reading the MD&A, I had figured we would see some upgrades from analysts, maybe we still will.

Once acquisitions are digested, this company could generate $0.50-0.60/yr free cash flow.

$15-18 share price at 25-30x FcF.


Guessing that the erosion of operating margins is scaring some people out of their shares.

Gotta give these guys time to find efficiencies, digest acquisitions, cross-sell to customers, build up the business.   Doesn't happen in 3 months.


I figured the stock would be +$1.00 today, instead we are almost -$1.00.

Either I'm an idiot or the market has become skittish about this growth story.

Time will tell.
Comment by malx1 on Feb 09, 2024 6:29pm
Canaccord guys seem to agree.   Target price INCREASED to $11 from 10.50   Target Raised by Canaccord Genuity Buy CAD 10.5 » CAD 11 02/09/2024 Will be interesting to see what the other firms have to say........................................................
Comment by malx1 on Feb 15, 2024 5:12pm
Share price now $9.50 Did everyone panic sell in the $8's? This is tech, dummies, not a shale service co 
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