Post by
FFHWatcher on Mar 25, 2010 11:54am
Quarterly and Annual Estimates for Coastal
Has anyone done this yet? I am in the process of putting together some numbers. Anybody want to share or speculate?
The numbers I am following are the usual;
Sales
Gross Profit
Advertising
SG&A
# of orders
(adj) EBITDA
Cash Generated from ops
Forex (looking at impact but not too concerned long term)
In general, I am getting pretty used to 15% top line growth.
I am looking for maintenance of margins, especially gross profit but I will also look at gross profit as a number, not just a percentage of sales.
I am looking for a continuance of SGA growing slower than sales, not necessarily quarter over quarter but YOY.
Advertising staying at 12% or so.
Order size staying about the same and # of orders growing around the same % of revenues. Maybe eyeglass orders are smaller but have better margin?
I would love to see normalized quarterly operating cash flow around $2M or $8M/yr. Large quarterly fluctuations seem to be the norm based on seasonality which is ok as long as the annual number comes in around $8M.
Longer term (2-3 years out), I am expecting to see sales growth (# of orders) and margin growth (glasses, customer re-orders, and cost containment) significantly add to operating cash flow, moving significantly up from $8Myr at a rate higher than sales growth.
In 2010, I am thinking that we could see >400k orders in one quarter, we could see close to $50M in gross profit for the year, $40M in SGA+Advertising for the year which would lead to approx. $10M in cash generated from operations.
Any input or suggestions or significant differences of opinion?