RE: RidiculousDavid....
With all due respect...........calling Ari an incompetent CEO because you personally would like to see a rise in the shareprice based on drill results is somewhat self-serving. I understand your frustration, but you seem to fail to understand what this "chess game" is all about. If you believe that Ari is kept awake at night because a few short term traders are going to be upset by his strategy then you give those short term traders a tad too much importance in the big scheme of things.
Let me run this by you............of course, it is all speculation, but bear with me. Ari knows full well that he has a monster deposit in hand here, even though the size of the deposit in any terms is small in area. He also knows that the grades are the best anyone has seen in a long time. A negative cost for Gold extraction is something you and I may not see ever again. He is also aware of the sensitivity of the locals on this issue.
Now, take the information that we have been handed with regards to a permit. This is the basis of my thinking, and I will welcome any opinion that counters it, because like I say, it is speculative. So, Ari wishes to put the emphasis on a permit first. Take into account that this part of the world is not as "regulated" as some other places we would like to be located when it comes to negotiating permits and political risk.
Knowing the value of the resource and the greed of most men, it somewhat goes without saying that perhaps at some point, you would like to get the formalities over and done with before exposing more of what you may or may not have in hand, no?
A new deal with Coomigasp was recently struck. Do you think the company gave more away than the initial deal? What are the consequences of releasing more results if they are as good or better than the past results, in your opinion, when it comes down to getting support for a permit. This includes negotiating your way through a bunch of people who perhaps would like to see a part of the value benefit them and not necessarily only the company and its shareholders, yes?
There is not better strategy than to regulate or at least stem the temptation when one negotiates for a permit. I think this is the chess game that Ari is playing right now.
Case in point................Southern Arc Minerals, a play in Indonesia, has been holding results for over 10 months now and all the shareholders realize that it was necessary. On one of their other properties, they have illegal mining happening, which took forever to stop. If they release good results for the property in question before they have the final permits in hand, there is a risk. In Indonesia, there are many people who would love to get their hands on a part of the action. Without the permits, there are shenanigans that can occur to delay the process even further.
With the permits, there is no possibility of further delays or illegal actions that can be carried out without correction. If they release results now, there is always the chance that further delays will be seen. It's a chess game or a poker game, whatever you fancy.
This may or may not be the case with CSI, but if there is a risk of permitting being further delayed by releasing great results, then I fully back Ari on his decision to put the results on the back burner in favor of getting final permitting, which would eliminate any risk of certain people looking out for themselves. I don't know who is running the gov't over there, nor do I know the extent of the integrity of people who negotiate these permits, so I am comforted by the fact that the cards are being hidden on the table, and not even Ari has seen them. I see it as prudent.
Another issue I have is the possibility, base on my limited knowledge of the players, that the process may or may not be extended due to the eventual/impending change in gov't. Does anyone know for 100% certain when and whether the permits will be obtained? Unless there is certainty, it is prudent to not expose all your cards.
I can name you a multitude of plays that have amounted to nothing because of political risk. I think Mr. Sussman knows that there may be some hurdles. There always are when we are talking about this kind of money. In my opinion, he is being careful. South America is not like North America. They strive on relationships, not on transactions.
For this level of value and riches though, the relationships need to be very good to finalize any transaction or permit.
I'm more than happy to hold on until the permits and add if those "traders" go away in disgust because they don't see the inherent value of waiting it out.
JMHO,
Don.