Crius Energy Trust Tr Unit CRIUF

research note

[HermannHaller]

For those wondering why stock dropped today, as mentioned in an earlier post, there was an analyst downgrade yesterday. Q3 results are expected to be well below current street estimates due to weather. Also, there are millions of shares coming off of lock up before year end, so could be a big wave of selling in next couple of months. I would guess also likely to be tax loss selling now too.

Don't buy until 2018.

PS - anyone buying shares today might ask themselves if they should be trading stocks on their own if they were not aware of this information.

[Pandora]

I did not do it on my own -- which I normally do -- I instead took my brokers advice. Your ps could be a little off base.

[tsxintsx]

I thought I replied... must have not.  Could you send a link to the downgrade/note?  I cannot find it.

[ronin1]

Canaccord Genuity Industrial Technologies Analyst Raveel Afzaal has marginally downgraded his outlook on shares of Crius Energy after revising his US:CAD exchange rate assumption to $1.25 from $1.30. While he continues to believe his bullish target is achievable within 12 months, Afzaal expects the shares to trade sideways in the near term as Q3/17 consensus forecasts are potentially revised down,

[Sukhi19]

1. I will draw your attention to slide 31 of the Analyst day presentation. In Dec 2017 , 2 million units will be left in lock up. Out of which  8% are held by Non-insiders which works out to 160,000 units. These units will not cause a major problem. 2. They had said that P/O ratio should come down to 58% with the latest acquisition. Even if we take Afzaal's projections to be true, P/O

[Sukhi19]

PS JE has same operating parameters. JE's  SP has been gaining ground which should be a positive for Crius. Crius is definitely a better company, otherwise, despite being smaller in size unit price should not be trading higher than JE's SP.  Though Crius's yield (9%+) is scary for some people, it is fully  covered.  Hold tight. Tide will turn sooner than later

[maypeters]

This stock was at 9.64 two days ago.  My guess would be that Canaccord will now be getting in now that the stock has been brought lower. 

[maypeters]

Some of the note is missing especially the target price:  Afzaal wrote: “We have revised our US:CAD exchange rate assumption to C$1.25 from C$1.30, which drives our target price to C$11.50/ sh (6.0x EV/2018 EBITDA unchanged) from C$12.00. While we continue to believe our target is achievable within 12 months, we expect the shares to trade sideways in the near term as Q3/17 consensus

[Pandora]

He was certainly on the money with this note: "This may result in temporary weakness in the share price and provide a better entry point."

[ronin1]

The high price of two days ago was 2$ bellow new target price!!!

[tsxintsx]

Someone has a lot to sell at 8.87, curious to see if / when it can break that.

[maypeters]

"This" actually turned out to be HIS NOTE rather than the results. :-)

[uograd]

thx  for posting ronin. If that is what they call a downgrade then my already rock bottom opinion of analysts was far too generous. target is now 11.50 from 12.00 when stock was traded at 9.50.  That is pretty funny. Please keep these downgrades coming.

[yggdrasilll]

Even better is the fact the reasons for the downgrade (weather and $CAN) are external factors that in no way reflect on the company.    

[deisman03]

Sukhi 19 is pretty astute as well as a few others here.  Sukhi takes care of his own portfolio for a very good reason. He knows that HE has his own best interests in mind with every investment he makes. He also does his due diligences before hand and while he owns an investment vehicle. He has been and likely will continue to be a gem of information and common sense. That doesn't mean

[maypeters]

It is still rated as a BUY by the same analyst If I remember the report correctly. Anyone else who saw it can confirm or correct the same.  

[uograd]

wow what great advice.  Everytime any broker put out a downgrade or upgrade we should immediately listen to exactly what they say because lord knows they are never wrong or are never doing what is in the best interests of their own books. You want to pay 2% for that advice, knock yourself out.  Most of the oldtimers on this board have been in and out of kwh.un dozens and dozens of times