RE:Quarterly Revenue Forecast Relative to MackieVery good read from THEROCK
I agree with the 9,4MIL estimate for Q3. It also happen to be the kind of breakeven point I calculated we need to become cash flow positive, and I meant that assuming other one time costs will show on the balance sheet.
As for the .10c PT and downgrade by Mackie, first of all this was after the financial release not after the Terra Nova stuff.. A very interesting thing is that the SP didnt plunge the day after our fiancial release, but the day AFTER, probably when Mackie made their downgrade. I LOVE this because it shows some inverstor sold at .08c not because of their own analysis of the company but they did it blindly because of Mackie downgrade. I agree with Lsfa that the analyst timing couldnt be worse for these investors (make them sell at lowest SP, just before CXV revenu start climbing.) What Mackie is basically saying is:" OK the SP is so low we must show we are on top of things, lets put a HOLD rating and a PT based on todays SP, and lets wait to see the revenu before upgrading again, so nobody can blame us"
A little comment on MAS s comment about San Diego and Portlang beginning of operation: I had investigated that stuff DEEPLY and sorry cant put all the links but I am pretty sure my conclusions were: one of them started operation at the very end of JUNE and the other started beginning of JULY
TheRock077 wrote: My previous analyses of quarterly forecasts are provided in the paste below.
Mackie most recently estimates $9.4 million for Q3 ( mine is $10 million ) and $12.4 million for Q4 ( mine is $13.8 million ).
Mackie estimates F2016/17 revenues at $35 million ( mine is $38 million ).
Actually, very close and mine was done independently and without knowledge of Mackies recent report/////
Others think that my Q3 is a bit low and after reading their posts, I tend to argee.............but fell free to analytically adjust my estimates
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Quarterly Forecast of Revenues
Lets do the stats first.
The current month runrate ( Phase 1 ) is $2.5 million /month ( $7.5 million divided by 3 )
Projected monthly runrate is $7.5 million ( $90 million divided by 12 months ).
With the exception of Q3/16, I will do a linear accretion of sales ( $3.75 million per quarter )
Q3 has at most one month of Phase 11 sales ( add about $ 0.7 million ).
Q3 has seen a 12.5 % increase in occupation rate ( add about $ 0.8 million )
Q3 is the strongest quarter of the year with sales about 15 % above norm ( add $0.9 )
Q3 had the toxicology lab operating for part of the quarter ( add $ 0.2 million ).
Total additional revenue for Q3 over base revenue is $2.6 million.
REVENUE RORECAST
Revenue forecast for Q3 is about $10 million
Revenue forcast for Q4/16 is $13.75 million
Revenue forecast for Q1/17 ( March to May 2017 ) is $17.50 million
Revenue Forecast for Q2/17 is $21.3 million.
Following Q2/17 , the quarterly revenue will average $22.5 million. ( $90 million per year ).