GREY:CXEYF - Post by User
Comment by
CalifDreamingon May 15, 2008 4:32pm
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Post# 15078887
RE: Oh Yeah that's right - PE
RE: Oh Yeah that's right - PECriky, PE, you need to recharge your abacus. For somebody who appears to love quoting numbers, you make an awful lot of silly mistakes.
1300 bpd with ~$100 netbacks (El B is seeing netbacks around $110 at current prices, the onshore is lower, but less of it) = $12MM/qtr cash flow.
EBB3 should come on around 1000-1500 bpd. Then there are the condensates of ~500 bpd from the NG stripping. So, by end of Q2, they should be generating close to 2800-3300 bpd liquids (I'm ignoring the NG cashflow as it gets something like $0.30 MCF as per the contract to supply the SEEB power plant). Say 3000 bpd to make is easy x $100 bbl netbacks = $27MM a quarter in free cash flow starting Q3.
Even you should be able to figure out that CAX is now on the cusp of being a significant cash flow generator.
And then they will finally reenter Chaal, do the workovers/wells at Ezzouia, and drill steps out at Robbana. CAX finally has the high risk development behind it - they obviously weren't experienced offshore guys and made every rookie mistake in the book. But onshore at Ezzouia and Robbana is far less technically challenging, as are the logistics.
Any decent success and CAX is a $2 stock. By rights, we should be there on the back of El B, but due to the incredible delays, the market is simply fed up and we need to get thru those who are willing to throw in the towel on the slightest increase.