Hi all,
I suspect that most people here are anxious and perhaps a bit nervous in anticipation of more news from Cytodyn. This is expected with so much on the line, dreams of making big money, concerns about risk and the wild rollercoaster ride we have enjoyed/endured since June. I am convinced that these are times when we need to remain calm, stay focused, have a plan, and trust the science; especially when emotions are trying to get the better of us. I would like to use this post to show one technique that helps me keep my nerves in check (Others include research and assessing my situation/goals, sorry but never tried Yoga...). It involves analyzing the situation from a slightly different angle through probability. I am not a statistician and must admit that my method has flaws/unknowns. Nevertheless, I think it is a reasonable and conservative approach that may help with nerves and weak hands under pressure. It uses simple probability to appreciate Leronlimab’s multiple potential applications, which is one of the major reasons for my optimism about the company. I would welcome constructive criticism, suggestions or better analyses. It is also not my intention here to trick, sway or convince anyone; instead, I simply want to share one view that helps me and that may help some of you.
Disclosures first: this is a simple exercise in combined probability by a non-expert with simplified assumptions, probable errors and plenty of room for improvement.
So here it goes....
Assumptions:
-Company only needs one successful study (FDA approved) for any holder that bought at an average of say $5 to $10 in order to break even and make a profit without focusing here on how much. As such, we all recoup 100% of our investments and make money thanks to a single successful study and we are calm again.... By the way, I started buying a few months ago and I am making a nice profit at the moment, but I am not one of the extremely lucky ones that bought at $0.2-$0.3 (congrats if you are one of them!).
-Company will do 10 studies for 10 different ailments/diseases (probably more in reality but let’s stick with 10).
-Probability of success in each individual study is just 25%, so probability of failure is 75% (0.75). I think Leronlimab will do better in some individual studies, but let’s use these numbers.
-All Individual probabilities are independent and assumed equal for simplicity. This means that P1 = P2 = P3=.....= P9 = P10 = P = 0.75. Please note that I chose to focus on the probability of failure of each study instead of success. The overall probability of success comes later.
Solution
-Combined probability of failure of all 10 studies (zero successes)
Pf = (P)^10, where “^10” is power exponent.
Pf = (0.75)^10= 0.056 (5.6%) not bad....
-Combined probability of at least one successful study in 10 studies (Ps)
Ps = 1 - Pf = 1 - 0.056 = 0.944 (94.4% nice....) (Note: 1” in the equation represents 100% of studies).
-Try a few other probabilities for fun:
P = 0.95 (95% failure) Pf = 0.60 & Ps = 0.40 (40%)
P = 0.9 (10% failure) Pf = 0.35 & Ps = 0.65 (65%)
P <= 0.5 (<=50% failure) Pf<0.001 & Ps>0.999 (>99.9%)
You can try your own numbers....
We could assign different probabilities for individual studies or assume dependent probabilities. It is not difficult, but I think there are too many unknowns for this to be worth the effort. However, let me just say that the odds can also swing greatly in our favor (above 80% or 90% overall probability of success) with just 2-3 studies at higher individual probabilities (say 50% or greater) while the remaining studies remain low (say 5% to 10% individual probability of success).
I am not a gambler and I hate Vegas, but I would definitely play with the odds above. It is as if you get to toss a coin 10 times and only need one successful heads to win (50% probability of success per toss but >99.9% in 10 flips). Or we do the same with a die and win with just one “2” in 10 throws (1/6 probability of success per throw but 84% in 10 throws). Perhaps I am missing something, but I like these odds.
Granted, there are possible risks in terms of Leronlimab not being effective, the company not executing or running out of funds, the FDA being unreasonable, Big Pharma or others playing games to affect Cytodyn, etc. Nevertheless, I believe that these risk are partly incorporated in the assumed probabilities. In my opinion, the fact that Leronlimab is a jack of all trades with excellent anecdotal evidence in multiple fronts makes this drug a relatively safe bet since it may only need one successful study to ensure that we all make money, plus this may result in subsequent successful studies. I would be very scared if we only had one study to show success, but I do not think this is the case because we should have many opportunities (10, 20, or more based on HIV, COVID, Cancer, NASH, MS, Alzheimer’s, etc.). Even if say COVID didn’t work out for any reason, I would still keep my shares because we will have many more chances to succeed.
My main intention with this post is to calm those that may feel the pressure, become nervous or get weak hands in the next few weeks as we await news. Yes, the ride will be bumpy, but I believe that the rewards will be there for longs not just to make a few bucks but to produce major generational wealth. I am a conservative investor who keeps the majority of my money in safe/boring investments to protect my family, but I always like to take small risks on riskier companies that I consider to be worthy. I think that CYDY is the small unicorn I was looking for and I have decided to take a considerably higher measured risk on this one due to its strong science, excellent potential, anecdotal evidence, multiple uses and the nice underlying story of saving many lives. I recommend everyone to find their own comfort zone and stick with a plan whether it is to hold, sell, trade, etc. In my case, I have made my plan and have chosen to hold long term while taking a few profits here and there.
Enjoy the weekend!
(All the above is IMHO, DYOR and DD, and blah, blah, blah...)