RE:RE:RE:VRIC Updateedx wrote:
Also, I talked to Nick about the Anon selling and he figures that's just Sprott. I told him about the calculations we did and he said he'd do his own digging. But I wonder if it infact was all Sprott and either I screwed up the math or the Anon net change wasn't accurate. I want to try this again.
From the Alternative Reports on Sedar:
Sprott's position as of March 30, 2015:
6,519,060
Sprott's position as of December 31, 2015:
4,389,060
That means Sprott disposed of 2,130,000 shares between April 1, 2015 and December 31, 2015. Can someone get the Anon net share change for DMM in that exact period? In addition, getting the Anon net share change for DMM from January 1, 2016 to present would be helpful. My <explective> brokerage doesn't give me the ability to do this easily.
Tad put together a month by month report (thanks!). Anon's net change in position in the period was
-4,258,034 shares, which means Sprott represented half of Anon's disposal of shares from April to December 2015, which is what we thought previously.
It is pretty clear someone else disposed of 2 million shares in that same period that was not Sprott via Anon. That may very well be multiple someones or someone that bought (not via Anon) then sold via Anon. One way that might go down is if if someone accumulated the shares normally then decided to bulk sell them to an institution's trading desk, that trading desk would probably dispose of them via Anon.
The non-Sprott part of the selling in that period represents about 4.5% of the float, so it's not insignificant. It's all going through Anon and is likely a large shareholder. The question remains; how deep is their remaining position? We know (due to the lack of Sedar reporting) that they could not have held more than 9.99% at the start and that they may have started dumping before April 2015. And it is possible it is more than one seller dumping through Anon, but it seems more likely that it would be one.
In January 2016, Anon dumped another 500k shares. It remains to be seen how much this overhang affects/holds down the share price, but one has to think that once the company demonstrates it can cover all expenses/debt payments and that it will start turning profits that's going to change. The current valuation doesn't even make sense if the company was guaranteed to go bankrupt given that book value is $1.16 / share which puts basically $0 valuation on the gold in the ground. Book value less debt and the market cap is like 15% of remaining asset value or something absurd like that.
Ultimately, profits will fix this share price if nothing else does before then, so if you believe in this company, the silver lining is you have a golden opportunity to accumulate shares at a completely obscene valuation. If you've given up on the company, well, that's unfortunate because selling at these levels doesn't represent anything close to a reasonable valuation, all things (including insolvency risk) considered.