GREY:DPGYF - Post by User
Comment by
larsen6on Mar 17, 2010 3:39pm
328 Views
Post# 16894697
RE: RE: Mcquarrie gave $3.50 target this a.m.
RE: RE: Mcquarrie gave $3.50 target this a.m.Boy, they're really sticking their necks out at $3.50 when NAV is probably around $5 or more. LOL.
I am using the following in my calculations of the NPV for the Bigstone based on Cardium. Again, I am getting $2Cdn/share over the life of the field. I think I am pretty conservative on these numbers:
Drill, Frac and Complete each well - $Cdn 2.5M in capital
Tie In - $Cdn 0.5M in capital
Drilling Success % - 75% (across 48 wells for the 16.5 sections). Net 36.
Discount Rate: 4%
Oil Price by Year ($Cdn)
2010 - 80
2011 - 82
2012 - 90
2013 - 92
2014 - 94
2015 - 97
2016 - 100
2017 - 105
Ave Well Production by Year over 6 years
46000
25500
24800
23700
22600
16400
Operating Cost to extract - $Cdn 12.0/BoE
Corporate Tax Rate - 20% (there will be no tax pools left to protect this Bigstone income).
And throw in some drilling credits on the near term wells, and voila!
I bought more today too.
Cheers.