Hit'em straightChangeWave Research Report:
4Q 2008 / 1Q 2009 Lagging Sectors
December 30, 2008
Overview
As recently reported, our December corporate survey showed the U.S. economy in a rapidly accelerating freefall – led by alarmingly low 4th Quarter sales projections, a deteriorating job market, a worsening credit crunch, and a severe pullback in capital spending and visibility.
But what does this mean at the sector level?
Typically, we report on both leading and lagging sectors each quarter. However, the current survey results show a worsening across the board. As such, this report focuses on the sectors showing the largest declines since our previous survey in September.
The survey, conducted Nov 20 – Dec 1, 2008, was comprised of 3,739 respondents.
The key lagging sectors this quarter are Natural Gas & Oil, Computer Hardware & Networking, Semiconductors, Manufacturing Equipment & Services, Energy Utilities and Consumer Retail Products & Services.
Table One below presents an instant summary of each of these lagging sectors – in comparison to the overall survey findings for all respondents. Click on the sector name, and you immediately jump to a series of charts highlighting that sector’s survey results.
Note that the numbers in parentheses represent the change from the previous quarter’s survey.
Table 1: Lagging Sectors from 4Q 2008 / 1Q 2009 Corporate Quarterly Survey
Below we present a set of charts that summarize the findings for each Lagging sector, including:
- 4Q 2008 Sales Results
- 4Q 2008 Hiring Trends
- Current Ability of Companies to Borrow Money
- 4Q 2008 Product Inventories
- Price Pressures in the Current Marketplace
- 1Q 2009 Projected Sales Pipeline
- 1Q 2009 Capital Budget Projections
(A) Sales – Current Quarter (4Q)
(B) Hiring – Current Quarter (4Q)
(C) Ability of Companies to Borrow Money – Current Quarter (4Q)
(D) Product Inventories – Current Quarter (4Q)
(E) Price Pressures – Current Quarter (4Q)
(F) Sales Pipeline Visibility – Next Quarter (1Q)
(G) Capital Budget Projections – Next Quarter (1Q)
(A) Sales – Current Quarter (4Q)
(B) Hiring – Current Quarter (4Q)
(C) Ability of Companies to Borrow Money – Current Quarter (4Q)
(D) Product Inventories – Current Quarter (4Q)
(E) Price Pressures – Current Quarter (4Q)
(F) Sales Pipeline Visibility – Next Quarter (1Q)
(G) Capital Budget Projections – Next Quarter (1Q)
(A) Sales – Current Quarter (4Q)
(B) Hiring – Current Quarter (4Q)
(C) Ability of Companies to Borrow Money – Current Quarter (4Q)
(D) Product Inventories – Current Quarter (4Q)
(E) Price Pressures – Current Quarter (4Q)
(F) Sales Pipeline Visibility – Next Quarter (1Q)
(G) Capital Budget Projections – Next Quarter (1Q)
(A) Sales – Current Quarter (4Q)
(B) Hiring – Current Quarter (4Q)
(C) Ability of Companies to Borrow Money – Current Quarter (4Q)
(D) Product Inventories – Current Quarter (4Q)
(E) Price Pressures – Current Quarter (4Q)
(F) Sales Pipeline Visibility – Next Quarter (1Q)
(G) Capital Budget Projections – Next Quarter (1Q)
(A) Sales – Current Quarter (4Q)
(B) Hiring – Current Quarter (4Q)
(C) Ability of Companies to Borrow Money – Current Quarter (4Q)
(D) Product Inventories – Current Quarter (4Q)
(E) Price Pressures – Current Quarter (4Q)
(F) Sales Pipeline Visibility – Next Quarter (1Q)
(G) Capital Budget Projections – Next Quarter (1Q)
(A) Sales – Current Quarter (4Q)
(B) Hiring – Current Quarter (4Q)
(C) Ability of Companies to Borrow Money – Current Quarter (4Q)
(D) Product Inventories – Current Quarter (4Q)
(E) Price Pressures – Current Quarter (4Q)
(F) Sales Pipeline Visibility – Next Quarter (1Q)
(G) Capital Budget Projections – Next Quarter (1Q)
Table 2: Other Sectors from 4Q 2008 / 1Q 2008 Corporate Quarterly Survey
This report presents the findings of a recent ChangeWave survey on the health of the economy and its sectors, including any changes during the 4th Quarter of 2008. The survey was conducted between November 20 – December 1, 2008. A total of 3,739 respondents participated in the survey.
ChangeWave's proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system is based upon the systematic gathering of valuable business and investment information directly over the Internet from accredited members.
The Research Network is assembled from senior technology and business executives in leading companies of select industries. Nearly 3 out of every 5 members (56%) have advanced degrees (e.g., Master's or Ph.D.) and 93% have at least a four-year bachelor's degree.
The business and investment intelligence provided by ChangeWave provides a real-time view of companies, technologies and business trends in key market sectors, along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources.
ChangeWave Research, a subsidiary of InvestorPlace Media, LLC, identifies and quantifies "change" in industries and companies through surveying a network of thousands of business executives and professionals working in more than 20 industries.
The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals – as well as early adopter consumers – who work in leading companies of select industries. They are credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.
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