Emblem Corp EMMBF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:one of the PPs

[jammer4444]

Wishful thinking at its finest.  You have no basis for that.  The market has already been getting its supply from illegal sources for years, so it is already fully supplied.  The rookie is the one that's losing money every day, and is still too dumb to figure out what is happening.

GreenNme wrote: The fact that you think each of the 45 producers will grow 20,000 - 70,000 kgs shows who the rookie is. Most of the LPs combined won't be producing 70k kgs. There will only about 5-10 LPs doing + 300,000 square feet production by 2019. Tell me what effect that will have on initial supply and demand? Go do some math. Get back to me. Eventually, yes, supply will catch up but that will be 5 years from now.

jammer4444 wrote: So please tell us how much management gets paid.  Becuase right now it is a mystery.  The Management Information Form on SEDAR shows that some guy named Dave was the CEO of the former shell company.  This is the document that usually shows how much management gets paid.  But it is conveniantly excluded.  However, I noticed from the last quarterly financial statement that the company is spending $12 million of your money per year on administration.

According to the Government of Canada, there are currently 45 licensed growers in the country.  26 of those are based in Ontario:

https://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/marihuana/info/list-eng.php

As per the most recent news release, Emblem by itself will grow 20,000kg per year with the new factory, although it wants to boost that to 70,000kg per year.  If there are 45 producers growing 20,000 kg per year, that's 900,000 kg per year, which is significantly more than the 500,000-700,000 kg market that exists. If every producer grows 70,000kg per year, like Emblem plans on doing, then there will be about 3 million kg of cannabis grown in Canada per year (10 grams per man, woman and child).  

And keep in mind that people are allowed to grown their own plants as well.  And the government will keep issuing new licenses so it can take their money.  It is truly insane how oversupplied the market is about to become.  That is why it is the basis for my short thesis.

It's like people have spontaneously decided to throw their money in the air like confetti, and all I have to do is bet that those dollar bills will eventually hit the floor.

run33 wrote:

jammer4444 wrote: Let me clue you in on a few things rookie:

1)  management does not care about you or the share price... they only care about taking as much of your money as possible through salary .. they will get paid if the shares are $10 or $0.10 and there is nothing you can do about it

2)  analysts always have price targets above the trading price.. if you don't believe me then look for yourself.. if the shares are such a good deal then the analysts would buy it themselves .. but they don't.. they take a salary in hard cash and entertain the idiots that own the shares with "research"

3)  your analysis conveniantly excludes the performance of the business .. sure there are some people that sold the shares so they can exercise the warrants today .. but what is going to attract more people to invest in the stock?  the stock has been free falling for months because people are waking up to the fact that this factory is never going to sell all of its production .. it is losing money on the grass it sells today .. maybe they will make money when the factory is build or maybe not .. it depends how much weed is in the market .. and that's where the intelligent people take a step back and realize there is a new licence being granted by the government every month .. and everyone with a license raises tens of millions of dollars and builds a factory ... as a result, there is way too much weed being produced ... this exact cycle has literally happened in every growth industry since the beginning of time 

Take care my friend.  This is nothing personal.  Just business. 

 

Actually, a few things you need to learn.

Management ONLY cares about share price. Salaries are a fraction of what is earned through profits on the paper, be it options or seed stock. Any management that claims otherwise is full of BS.

Its a spec stock. There is no viable business up and running yet. Speculation will drive stocks much further than underlying profits ever will.

Current licensed production between every single LP out there is currently 50,000 KG's. Yes, that number will grow over time, but the black market is dong 500-700,000 KGs which will take a few years to come online.

The warrants have a 3 year life and the majority of them cannot even be exercised until December. There were exactly ZERO warrants exercised today.

Analysts..... well, we agree there. 

Of course nothing personal... other than some guy with three months of market experience and an E-Trade account calling people rookie.