The story thus far: asset sales have brought in almost $130 million and debt has been reduced to just the $42 million in convertible debentures. Considering cash on hand, net debt at year end is supposed to be $23 million. Equal expects 2013 cash flow of $33 million (at $3.90 gas) with capital expense of $36 mil. Nawar sees cash flow of $45 mil at $4.25 gas. Co. uses mmbtu's vs. Nawar's mcf.
The 20 cent dividend works out to $7 million annual expense. Seems like a paltry reward to long-suffering shareholders, but OK, I can live with it.
I would like to see the company make a substantial issuer bid to buy back 8 million shares as per Nawar's suggestion. Presume this could be done at $4, total cost $32 million thereby bringing debt to $55 mil. If cash flow comes in around $30 mil that would equate to 1.83 debt to CF, disregarding annual interest. With 8 million fewer shares, annual dividend "savings" would be $1.6 million which would be 5% of $32 million buyback cost. I haven't looked up the interest rate on the credit line.
I agree with Nawar it makes little sense to expand production with gas prices at $3.63 today.
I can't see Nawar et al backing down, and if it comes to a proxy battle I've already committed to him. His plans are probably financially aggressive, but imaginative. The company's plan just isn't going to cut it, witness the disappointing market reaction. Middle ground, anyone?