RE: a combination of Canadian dollar going I have to imagine that a handful of the major lumber companies must be sniffing around looking at ETR as a possible takeover candidate, if for anything else, just the timber rights. Perhaps when the new Timmins mill is completed, then a takeover offer might materialize.
For Eacom, the productivity of existing mills has always been a lingering concern of mine. In addition to the older mills, recent articles have spoken about the difficulty that many lumber companies are having with regard to hiring qualified mill workers, as many who were laid off in the past have moved on to greener pastures in either Alberta or Saskatchewan (in different industries). Nevertheless, I would imagine that improving lumber prices and higher demand for product should be able to compensate for this shortfall in labour productivity. Would an inexperienced mill worker get the same starting salary as those who are more experienced? I would expect not, but then I'm not sure about wage rate differentials for experienced vs. inexperienced mill workers.
I'll probably hold Eacom until either one of these following events occur:
1. Buyout (either friendly or hostile). It could come whenever, this month, or maybe 2 years or more.
2. US Housing Starts return to normalized levels (around 1.5 MM annualized starts/year). Still a ways to go.
3. Stock price hits a 5 year high (which won't happen until consistent earnings begin to materialize).
4. Stock price craters, due to a faltering economy, because of some unexpected macroeconomic shock.
Meanwhile, I expect we'll bounce up and down in a range for a while. However, it'd be nice to see some money start flowing into small caps, similar to the way it's been flowing into large caps; but this might take a few quarters to happen, as it appears retail investors need to have a little more confidence about improving fundamentals in the economy. If it doesn't pay a dividend, then investors don't seem interested.
Patience!