RE: RE: RE: Clock is tickingAt the end of August I warned that this would happen to the mkt in Sept. In fact my target for the first major push on FAS was $22.50 to $23.50. FAS hit $23.53 today. My final target was around $30 for FAS. For the S&P my calculated target has long been 1145-1158. S&P hit 1144.86 today.
Unfortunately I am in FAZ right now, and was looking for a short term play on a pullback prior to further runup. The short squeeze has been super strong due to the low number of bulls in the sentiment number at the end of Aug. I'm a little annoyed with myself since I knew the mkt was set to rally sharply, and yet decided to play a pullback too early on the way up. The technical setups were good but it just didn't work out. It's not a big problem though, I see FAZ at least jumping back into the $13's before further declines. It may take a few days.
I probably will just get out of FAZ there. I won't make much on FAZ, but I still think FAS has another final push up coming. I will likely pick up FAS for the final push up. I'll be quite cautious with FAS though because as far as I'm concerned it starts to get dangerous above $26.00. I expect my calculated targets to be close and I'll review as we go, but the market can overshoot or undershoot my targets. I can't get them exact and I certainly am not going to try to push this trade too far and long with a crash looming in the near future.
So while I fumbled the short term trade, I am pleased in that my big picture is shaping up as expected. My theory has been confirmed. We are setting up for the crash and it's still early but not all that far away. If you think this rally has been strong, prepare to be amazed by the drop that follows it!!!
The sentiment numbers are starting to get lopsided now with ever fewer numbers of bears. Please don't confuse this sharp rally with economic recovery. This rally has nothing to do with any sort of economic improvement.
SC