GB Group Ord Shs GBGPF

Question

[thegreatergold]

I'm not too familiar with following mergers & acquisitions but from what I've read, isn't cannimed's stock going to go up to the equivalent of $24 / share in Aurora Cannabis? Why aren't more people jumping on this?

[thekgs68]

Yes, it could but it is based on shares of ACB...and although SOMEDAY those shares may equate to $24 per CMED share, the immediate and short term UPSIDE from here to $24 is approx 20% gain. I can find other opportunities to make that in a day!  (or lose that LOL) In summary, IMO there's just not enough upside left here and still a few unknowns.

[VENMan]

Because People think in this pot market they can go off and make more money than the spread currently offers. I say Good luck to them!   ACB said: On Nov 14 2017 Pursuant to the Proposal, CanniMed shareholders will be entitled to receive a maximum of $24 per CanniMed share or 4.52586207 Aurora shares, based on the 20-day volume weighted average price of Aurora. Based on the closing

[thegreatergold]

Let me get this straight, people think they can make more than 20% upside in one day on other plays?!? Yeah right, c'mon... 

[thekgs68]

It's possible, but is a stretch yes... But I think I can do better that 20% over the life of how long CMED will take to ge to $24, and remember it could never get there...It's well of it's high today that's for sure.

[VENMan]

It's going to take more than 1 day to see 20% return here, but I'm glad to wait because a bird in the hand is better than two on the fist. from today's news release:  Aurora intends to commence the bid during the week of November 20, 2017 and thereafter mail a takeover bid circular to the registered holders of CanniMed Shares (in the time required under applicable

[thekgs68]

Totally cool!  I wish you good luck.  Just a different trading strategy If CMED does drift lower I'd be happy to re-enter

[VENMan]

Me as well! CMED has 38% of the ACB shares locked in or 8.74 million. Of the remaining 14.37 million shares not locked-in they need 6.67 million shares to luck-in as well. ACB will send out info asking the biggest shareholders not locked-in to please luck in shares. If they you that takes them to 15.41 million shares locked-in. 15.41milion share lucked-in of the total 23Million shares gets this

[trickydisco]

thegreatergold, -if ACB drifts above $5.51, the consideration payable for each CMED share will still be $24 -if ACB drifts below $5.51, the consideration payable for each CMED share will be LESS than $24

[VENMan]

Less than $24?  Today ACB said: The Offer will provide holders of CanniMed Shares with 4.52586207 Aurora Shares for each CanniMed Share, subject to a maximum of $24.00 per CanniMed Share (the "Cap Price"). If the market value for 4.52586207 Aurora Shares is more than the Cap Price (based on the 20-day VWAP of Aurora Shares on the earlier of the expiry date for the Offer

[trickydisco]

VENman, The line you have highlighted, from the NR, is the If/Then statement for the scenario where the market value for 4.52586207 ACB shares is above $24 (the cap price).  In such a scenario, you are correct, the 4.52586207 multiplier will indeed be adjusted so that the consideration payable is $24. There is no corresponding If/Then statement explicitly stated for the scenario where ACB SP

[VENMan]

Ok, I see, thank you so much for pointing this out to me. So if ACB drops below $5.30 CMED is not in the money, and if it trades over $5.30 ACB will adjust for a smaller ratio of shares. Thanks Again.    

[makingmoney1]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Stonyguy]

I really cannot see this deal failing, it makes sense right now not just for CMED and ACB but for the industry. Will HIP fall victim to the bigger deal and be left behind, probably not. I think it plays a bigger role than most are thinking.  But what has me scratching my head is this whole thing, it just defies conventional wisdom.  I think normally CMED would have gone to $24 and stayed

[VENMan]

Happy Terms, Happy Times but this is not the case here. CMED turned a cold shoulder on the deal which in the end may cost them $9.5 million which HIP will get but will reduce our book value. We had $54 Million in cash and this could now become $44.5 million in cash and for what? So that's where your $26.50 a share went out the window. We should see an uptick in the price this week IF ACB

[VENMan]

Here's what gets me. CMED said when ACB put a Valuation on themselves of about $5.50 they overvalued themselves. ACB has $345m in cash and a Market cap of $2.2 Billion thats about 6 times their Cash. CMED had $54 million in cash and a Market Cap of $345 million so again thats about 6 times their cash. CMED said ACB was overvalued! What gets me is HIP has less than $1 million in Cash but lets

[Stonyguy]

VENMan, I think your summation is this, who blinks first?  I can see your point that CMED is feeling a little sheepish with the HIP acquisition when you put it that way.  However ACB has not ruled out including the HIP transaction in the deal, but again it would mean the two parties would have to sit down and talk.  I am of the opinion ACB is executing very well however they lack

[VENMan]

Stonyguy, thanks for your input. If it's true that an offer was sent that CMED never received then both parties should be able to find common ground and sit at the table and talk. For Canadian Branding I honestly don't think you will find a better group than the HIP. I feel in my gut that Up Cannabis with the HIP is as Canadian as Tim Horton's and you have to pay for that I get it. All

[Stonyguy]

Thanks for the dialog VENMan, it’s a pleasure when this can happen uninterrupted.  Come on over to the ACB or RTI board now and then, would be nice to see you there more often.

[VENMan]

Thanks SG, it's a pleasure to share thought with you as well! 

[Demian72]

Dear Venman, do you mind if i ask your opinion as you apear to be an opinion worthy person based on your posts.  With this new strategy of ACB going directly to the shareholders of CMED with more or less garranted buy out price of 24, a: do you invisage shareholders will be inclinded towards acepting it and therefore ignoring the BOD's opinion, and b: is any anything the BOD in such case

[VENMan]

Demian72, thank you for the kind words, all the best of luck to you with your trades. Yes, my gut tells me if ACB goes to shareholders out side the 38% who are lock-in they will accept the ACB offer because the timing is right. We all feel in our gut that some other big Corona Whale is going to come in and take 20% of either APH or ACB. If CMED goes with ACB, a Big Whale will go with ACB like what

[Demian72]

Thank you so much, dear VENMan for your detailed reply. I concur with you totally that anyone who is able so see beyond his nose tip cannot help compehending a vast, immeasurable  potential that this deal will entail on all possible fronts. The managemnt of CMED, especially the president, I would immagine, like those tyrants at the relm of third world contries, long forgot that they are

[VENMan]

Thanks Demian72, For me at this point it's just about how many shares of ACB can I own and how to avoid Capital Gains. I will just sit and wait for ACB to convert my CMED shares. I day traded 20k shares of the HIP yesterday but may take a buy and hold approach but only after a here a positive comment from ACB regarding them. ALL IMO!! DYODD have a great day everyone! 

[Stonyguy]

A wise man told me once, if you’re paying taxes you’re making money.  I know avoidance is part of the tax game, however if you are paying them, it a sign your doin it right.

[Cathat]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Stonyguy]

I understand a couple of things, capital gains are only trigger once you realize the gain, second everyone has a first time exemption from capital gains tax, I think it’s the first 50K is free.  Anything done within a reregistered account is capital gains exempt (IE: RRSP, RIF, TFSA).  But make sure and consult a professional.

[Kazparov]

Almost 100% certain there is no first time capital gains tax exemption in Canada.

[Stonyguy]

If I may express my opinion, and VENMan I would also like to hear what you have to say as well.  This strategy is what I understand to be a hostile takeover.  So your more or less guaranteed is a safe statement, but ACB could find something during their DD and the deal could fail and CMED SP would crumble, that is less likely than the takeover being successful but still a risk.  

[VENMan]

Yup, I agree with you SG! In fairness to CMED as a long term shareholder we knew they were looking for a Rec Play. They herd it many times that they needed to be more than just a MED Play and CMED was looking. This we all knew. Many factors have to play out before CMED will actually see $24. The main two is 1. the deal has to get done and 2 the Share Price of ACB can't tank. The players buying

[Snippy1]

ACB will make sure that steaming pile of $hit HIP gets blocked.  You CMED shareholders should be happy to have a chance at becoming a relevant company and not a has been or never been.

[Stonyguy]

Snippy, I think CMED is very relevant, so much so it has gotten the attention of a premiere corporation like ACB.  ACB could have easily choose OGI or APH the thing is they have a poison pill with the US investments, that make CMED very and I mean very relevant. FYI I have never held nor do I hold CMED, but I wish I did today,  but tomorrow is another day.

[camnewly88]

If you can't see the value of HIP I don't know what to say or maybe im wrong, but I think that brand is iconic in Canada a country that is very brand loyal imo, so I think the brand alone has great value, also the very close connection to the Trudeau government and the Hip/Gord will come in handy, don't kid yourself it happens all the time....All 3 companies will be a force if and when