Glacier Media Inc GLMFF

Fair Value Compared to Post Media..Grossly Undervalued

[nozzpack]

Post Media is a virtual clone of GVC and is therefore a very strong proxy for peer valuation.

The metrics are shown below and not that PNC has a negative book value compared to GVC
book value in excess of $180 m.

GVC is grossly under valued.....

	Post Media		Glacier Media
Shares o/s	98,800,000		132,500,000
Market cap	$201m		$61 m
Debt	$238 m		$0.0 m
Cash	$52 m		$15.9 m
lease debt	$40 m		$2.9 m
Revene	$335 m		$120 m
Gross Margin	28%		35%
Book Value	- $120 m		$183 m
Enterprise  value	$427 m		$48 m
Ebitda	$33.2 m		$16.00
Ebitda/share	0.34		0.12
EV / Ebitda	12.8		3.1
Price to book Multiple			2.97
Value @ PNC Ebitda multiple			$1.55 per share
Fair Value P/Book	$0.0 /share		$4.10 /share

[bigreturn11]

Nozz - care to make a prediction on revenues, profit and free cash flow for Q4?

[nozzpack]

There are too many interacting businesses for a line item aggregation. But Q4 is their best quarter of the year, so I would expect a 10-15 % boost in revenues compared to the previous three quarters and an Ebitda margin of about 15% which would be around $7 million including their JV partnerships . Thats a nice way to end a strong year with continued conversion to digital. Its difficult to

[bigreturn11]

Nozz - I looked back on your financial model comparison realtive to Post Media.  Pretty incredible that GVC wins on all all financial metrics, including diversied holdings. I see nothing but upside int he future.

[nozzpack]

There is no doubt about the fact that compared to the near perfect proxy peer...Post Media..grossly undervalued by many multiples of the current price. Part of that is due to knee capping of the share price to allow transfer of cheap paper to stronger hands. That now seems to have ended in which case we should be free running , with large step ups on significant news . My notes say about $8