GREY:GRFJF - Post by User
Comment by
make_rubleson Jan 17, 2008 8:00pm
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Post# 14221766
RE: Take a look at this rubles...STF
RE: Take a look at this rubles...STFHey STF, Chart certainly looks nasty!
My belief is any bounce is going to be short term and I would recommend to sell most stocks on bounces from here on in.
My main 2 plays right now are Uranium in which I am getting killed on for the last while but I'm not backing away from it as I believe Uranium demand will outstrip supply in the intermediate term of at least 5 years and Gold is the other play cause I believe all non backed currencies are in deep $h!t. US$ is the 1st that comes to mind.
For the real short term, I think we will washout out tomorrow morning and get the VIX reading all the technicians are waiting to signal a bottom and then we likely get a bounce.
At some point I expect that the only thing people will want to buy is commodity stocks, particularily gold, and we'll see the markets continue to fall yet gold and gold stocks rising. They've fought a long time to keep gold down but now they are backed into a corner. I agree with you that the fed does not have much left to cut in terms of interest rates. So they'll just keep printing money. Question will become will anyone want the US$ any more or will they run to gold instead? I certainly wouldn't want to be holding any US dollars although they may strengthen into the US election ,after which it will continue on it's way to zero unless the fed changes it's policy(not gonna happen).
As for the subprime mess, I think it will last more like 3-5 years since most is tied to housing which is very slow to completely washout due to being not so liquid, and people having the tendency to hang on much longer vs stock investments where they cut losses short much quicker. And it will spread into all debt since it's the consumer we are talking about. car loans, credit cards, bank loans, etc NOT just mortgages are in jeopardy. Unfortunately most Americans acted like the fed and spent money they did not have and now they're in debt up the ears their homes ,cars and CCs. This formula would have worked out great if houses went up forever since equity would keep growing and people could keep using it to fund other things, BUT we know that can't happen.
Me myself, I'm sticking to gold as my currency / investment of choice and using WGI to leverage part of my position into it. It's definitely been frustrating the last while though.
GLTA!