Ivorygull wrote:
Goaweigh, I like your numbers as in the number of ounces you believe could be in the target area. I’m too thick, or is that width, to figure it out. LOL But I think that it will be way more than $30/share at 16M ounces.
When we have an idea of how many ounces there are, then we will have, based on the following, a good idea of what the share price could be. IMHO
Rob Cudney, one of GBR’s large shareholders, sold in the Red Lake area, Gold Eagle for $1.5B in 2008…without a resource estimate !!!!
They had an area of 800 metres down to 2 Km. Share wise they got between $12.62-$13 per share, so that would be 115+ million shares. Let’s assume that we have 50 million shares outstanding, could be less, could be more, but not much either way.
If that had been us, for that size property, we would have got $1.5B / 50M = $30 per share.
On the LP fault alone, we have an area six times as large horizontally, and have no reason to doubt that vertically, we don’t have it going down to 2 Km, since we are in the same region, and have a similar mineralization. So, 6 x $1.5B = $9B. That is $9B / 50M = $180 per share.
Given that we are in the same area, that we also have no resource estimate, but consistently have great drill results, I’d say that this is comparing apples to apples for those of you who are averse to likening apples to oranges. What kind of apples you say, well I’m glad you asked that question, Golden Delicious of course. $180 per share really is Gold and Delicious !!!!
Alright, for those of you who disagree on that one, I was listening to some older interviews of Chris Taylor, and he said that with 48M shares outstanding and an offer of half a Billion, the share price would be $10 per share.
Well we all know that we are basically at that price now, and no way are we selling. If we were offered $3B, that would be $60 per share, and at $9B, $180 per share. Sound familiar.
Which brings us to comparing ourselves to other projects, both in different districts, maybe even different mineralization, and both being existing and producing mines; one that we are often likened to, the Malartic open pit mine, and one other, the Detour open pit mine.
To get passed those that will complain you are comparing apples and oranges, I’m going to return the damn oranges and get more apples, any of you favour a particular type? Maybe Golden Delicious versus Granny Smith.
How can I do that since they all have existing mines you say, well why don’t we take away the cost of the mines and only leave the gold in the ground. We can even take off more than the cost of the mines to produce three different scenarios pretending we are a major buying us out………..
In the Malartic case they had just under 10 M oz and sold for $3.5 B. Assume $1B to build.
10M oz x $350 = $3.5B. That is, they got $350/oz.
1/ We don’t include $1 billion because that’s what it’s going to cost us to start a mine.
10M oz x $250 = $2.5B………….GBR share price would be $50.00/share.
2/ We don’t include $1.5 billion because that’s what it’s going to cost us to start a mine and inflation keeps us up at night (or is that gas?).
10M oz x $200 = $2.0B………….GBR share price would be $40.00/share.
3/ We don’t include $2 billion because that’s what it’s going to cost us to start a mine and we are a bunch of crooks who don’t give a rats azz.
10M oz x $150 = $1.5B………….GBR share price would be $30/share.
Detour was bought out by Kirkland for $4.9B for an equivalent value of $27.50/share. They have a 22 year mine life at 659,000 oz’s per year for a total of 14.5M oz. It cost them $1.5B to build the mine.
14.5M oz x $337.93 = $4.9B. That is they got $337.93/oz.
1/ We don’t include $1.5 billion because that’s what it’s going to cost us to start a mine.
14.5M oz x $234.48 = $3.4B………….GBR share price would be $68.00/share.
2/ We don’t include $2.0 billion because that’s what it’s going to cost us to start a mine and inflation keeps us up at night (or is that gas?).
14.5M oz x $200 = $2.9B………….GBR share price would be $58/share.
3/ We don’t include $2.5 billion because that’s what it’s going to cost us to start a mine and we are a bunch of crooks who don’t give a rats azz.
14.5M oz x $165.52 = $2.4B………….GBR share price would be $48/share.