RE:In a land of fools
Interesting perspective TITOO, where are you located? I can tell you that there are a lot of sideline buyers for both Toronto and Vancouver. Small families that have to do massive commutes to get to work. I'm guessing you are in the US looking in? How often are you in Vancouver?
Are you aware of the geography? For Vancouver, it's land constrained on all four sides. Toronto is land constrained on one side.
I have followed real estate for years. When people were panicking in 2008/2009, I was accumulating and here, yes, I'm considering selling now and told a good friend not to invest in real estate at the highs (now). But it's always been unaffortable to buy into Vancouver. That hasn't changed in 20-30 years. Small correction? Sure, it's needed. A "crash"? I don't see it and something big would have to happen. Canada has been very resilient to the short attack on resources. Look at many of the large resources companies.
If you own real estate, shorting overextended lenders is certainly a great way to hedge for a crash. Some of the new people here appear to be like minded on this.
You seem to live and breathe this sector, is this your #1 short and why?
Real estate simply follows supply and demand. Yes, condos have PLENTY Of supply so if demand decreases, that market will see some wild fluctuations (and could see a crash that will impact detached). If HCG is focussed on lending to those who are the least prepared to weather these cycles in a market like Toronto, then I'm all in.
I would be worried about listening to tunnel-vision longs and shorts alike. Once you have a position for or against, your impartial view goes away. We are humans, not machines.