RE: I don't like itWhichever of the various potential scenarios people think is the correct one, if any are correct, I think a basic review of value should be considered by any shareholder for a couple of obvious reasons. One is that current value might influence or decide what one thinks is going to happen to this share price based on nothing more than the "expected" , and the second is that one might/should consider carefully what the value of their shares could be given various scenarios moving forward. Is the stock under valued, over valued, and what is the potential?
Sometimes simple is best for perspective.
There is current value, there is future value, and then there is potential of something to occur that will influence these.
I look at HRG like this: value right now is greater than current share price, so why would anyone part with their shares for the current price or less. Further any succesfull takeover must offer shareholders a price that satisfies a large majority. Are you one of those who would part at todays price, is the obvious question therefore, and if so why? By the look of the recent trading, many are parting on emotion, based I think on trading ativitiy far removed from value appraisal. Short term, maybe manipulated even to scare out some shares, and given my view of the potential, really quite stupid at these price levels.
Take Prognoz: What does one buy a gold/silver play for in the first place. Production, known reserves, and potential come to mind. Prognoz is 50% owned by HRG. It has proven in round figures say 200 million ounces of silver. It has VAST unknown potential further reserves. But lets look at 100 million ounces they now own. What value would folks like to place on this alone? Silver currently at over $18. If you develop a mine ad spend say 1 Billion doing so, that is $5 per ounce of the known and 50% is cost to HRG. Now say it costs you another $5 in ongoing costs. How about $8 profit. Sound reasonable or not? 100 million times $8 =$800,000,000 might be HRG portion. With about 300 million shares out, what portion of this would you like to assign as value per share? How about half? That is over $1 per share now. But wait, does anyone think that there is more silver there? I do. How about it moves up to 400, 500, or even 1 Billion ounces, all very possible, if you look at the specs, and the percentage of unexplored and known targets. So what would you part with this potential for? If it turned out to be double (very reasonable possibility) or greater, what value then??? You quickly come to a value per share far greater than today without anything else. Think about that. Value of what is known, reasonable chance at double?, and outside chance at say 1 Billion ounces. What value then? Try near $10, and that is based on high costs, price today and scale up.IMO If the price of silver continues up as many think, the value could be staggering. Do the math yourself.
I reiterate: Prognoz should not be let go, it is like having what every mine dreams of having, and then selling it to go and find what would it be exactly?????
.
Now lest we forget, consider the expected production ramp up, over next while. Whether slow, or delayed, it appears that we could produce 300,000 ounces per year soon, for a number of years from what is now known, and there is potential for expanded reserves here as well and increased production. In any case, look at costs, and do the simple math, looking at increments of $100 per ounce for gold price. I see value here that could easily be .40 earnings per share. This might reasonably put the shareprice at 3.50-5 range alone, if not higher.
There are other assets as well.
Thus why I say value will assert over time. Of course there are risks. But it is very highly discounted at this point. When people sell in panic mode, as the price of gold and silver rises, one has to wonder. But nothing to date indicates to me a discount anywhere near todays price is reasonable. In addition, I expect metal prices are far from their highs over next few years, the potential thus is just that much greater in terms of multiples from todays depressed price, from my perspective. Do your own math, share it here if you like, as it might just be an interesting exercise. You may see it far differently, but if so expain the math. Value, potential, production. Its all here, with a few problems that will be remedied, as I see it, because this situation merits it. Far different form most of these situations where the assets are simply not there.imo
My take: nothing has changed for me: $5 within 15 months, and potential for higher. Do not be fooled by market antics that as I see it are there so certain parties can acquire more, and yes appearing to manipulate and keep stock within a range, and scare out the nervous, who should take out a calculator and consider the value of their shares, now, and moving forward. Just look at the trading patterns and house action, and parting with shares on the dips is the complete opposite of what I am doing. Its buy on those dips, they are a gift.imo