RE: Huge volume, no movementIt may take a while. There is obviously something going on, even if it is nothing more than changes in positions, you might ask why. My time frame is looking out a bit more than a year, as experience has told me to form an opinion, and while not being stubborn or unobjective, always ask if the fundamental reason why I have taken a position is still in place. In the case of HRG this is still the case. I hold the opinion that the assets held here have very good value, the production and cash flow will increase over next year or two, and value will assert over the medium term, both on a relational basis to other more highly valued similar situations without the same assets or potential (IMO) and in absolute terms. Meaning that I expect current reserves to increase as well over time, and Prognoz value to assert to some degree.
The management question looms large of course. What are their choices? They can do something that effects share price positively. Possible. Or they can scheme away and try again to pull of some ridiculous deal, that in the eyes of others is for their benefit, at the expense of other shareholders. My guess, is that I think they are trying to go the middle route. Keep shareholders and majority vote, while trying to put themselves in beneficial position and in control of Prognoz. Of course there is the chance they screw things up even more, or that they scheme and plot how to benefit themselves alone or at least to a far larger degree than they are due (IMO). That is the speculation and some of the risk. Bottom line however: I see assets asserting value in one way or another over medium term.
The price of gold and/or silver head up. This could raise all ships regardless of how inept managment is, benefiting these tier two situations, and particularly those seen as undervalued. I see this as a substantial possiblity over next six months, but is not the basis for my investment. Which again is simply a case of assertion of value over time, whatever, whomever plays around in the meantime. But do not discount what a value might exist here given a real run on gold. By real I mean a panic run, which may or may not occur, but which is definitely a possibility. If gold runs up and over $1200, you will see a BIG run into these stocks.IMO And silver, same. If silver were to go to $25-$40 or higher, Prognoz would get a lot of attention.
I am not immune to views on the games in between however. I do think at HRG there appears to be vested interests trying to keep the stock range bound for a number of days running. Looked at another way, some sort of planned or agreed upon positioning within given price ranges may be taking place. I think this range bound trading could be taking place to possibly justify some sort of a deal. Maybe even at an artificailly discounted price range.
If one believes that there is about to be a change in managment, and the activity represents exit and/or entry they should go with whichever side they seeing as being smartest or with what they beleive the outcome of same portends. IE The sellers have it right, you would sell, and if the buyers of these large blocks have it right, you would buy of course. Take your pick. Or if you are like me, I just ignore the short term games. But no doubt they are taking place.IMO
One should not discount that someone takes a run at the whole thing by way of an offer. This may explain why price range and volume are at odds here some of the time. IE high volume with little range. This might indicate initial acquisition and positioning, or increase in a position, and desire to hold range, so claims of value can be asserted, and then if this is the case, a low offer. Not my wish, but it could happen. EVEN by our trusted managment of course! You never know.
So what will it take to move this higher was the question. Time, an event(takeover, deal etc), higher metal prices, increased reserves, cash flow increase, production as predicted, costs contained and either new managment or a better performance by same. I say the odds are strongly in favor of one or more of these taking place. If lucky most.
What I would not do, is to sell a stock like this, so heavily discounted on both relative basis and in absolute terms, just when we are heading into what is traditionally the best period for Gold etc. Late August on to year end. But that is me. I am quite happy to wait for a good while longer, its that simple.
To do right now: hold or buy right now. Upside is far greater than downside, but no guarantee of course, just an opinion. Do I think games are now going on. YES. Will it benefit shareholders? Hope so, but you never know, as past indicates, as previously voiced by many, possibility of strange deals. You do not get bargains anywhere in anything unless you are willing to address risks, and the reasons a situation is in fact discounted. When the issues are resolved on way or another, the big profits are almost always gone, by defintion of course. You have a situation here, where upside could be multiples.IMO