RE: For your interest, FWIW...Nobody can prove a speculation right or wrong until it has happened. You lay out a future scenario, and act as though it has already taken place, and then say prove you wrong. I say, anything is possible, so I do not mean what you say is not possible, but it simply can't be proved as yet. The question of ownership and control over the longer term depends on many factors. One of which, of course, is whether current shareholders sell and probably smarter, stronger hands acquire. It is nothing new for groups to try and scare out weak hands. You can speculate, rightly or wrongly on any such scenario, but in the end, does the share price go up or down as a result, might be a consideration for many. The question might also be asked: if you invest at $1.79 are you wanting to see the price appreciate from there or not? Or does one see some darker plot line, where investors at $1.79 are willing to take a loss on that? I think over time the answer is that the Russian investors want a much higher price. In the short term the logic might dictate, a price at about the financing range, but if folks want to panic and throw their shares out at very low prices, the money will grab those as well. Why not? If you are willing to pay $1.79 why wouldn't you buy shares at a lower price when offered? On the other hand if you want the deal to go through, you may want to keep the price at a level where shareholders will accept the deal. Depending on market conditions, private placements are MOST often done at discounts to current price. Therefore it seems logical that the price is going to trade between todays price range and slightly above the $1.79 price. Of course any radical movement in precious metals prices can effect all of this, or an outside bid. But I doubt anyone will make a move at this point in time.
We all should know that Russia has a political and business envrironment with challenges. The way I see Pupi Pants. He is as an egotistical, self centered, very old school power monger. What else would one expect, from his background in intelligence and politics? However, as the Russian Economy weakens over the next short while, and he alienates investment, it will compound on itself (IMO). We shall see, in the sense of being able to continue to alienate foreign investment, technology and expertise needed by Russia, but wanting to know they are doing it so they get a return. Poopi Pants is going to hurt his own returns, and more importantly the economy of Russia is just as subject to wrong moves as most places. If the folks who are making money in the business world in Russia, suddenly see it contracting rapidly I would not be surprised for them to react and create pressure on the powers that be. After all, Russia did not thrive so well on their last bout of central power. Even in their fog bank, it must be apparent to many, that if they kill the goose that has brought them whatever prosperity they currently enjoy, they risk going back to what exactly? It is them who are going to suffer, as business declines.IMO As the Russian stock markets react, as they will, it will not prove so popular with the very people who surround Pupi Pants. After all, they need the vibrant economy to carry on their games. Funny how quickly people forget their love affairs, when their investments decline. ( I am a contrary investor as pointed out previously, and see Poopi Pants as having reached his peak, and a slow decline taking place over next while as his actions start to effect the economy)
In any case, I think we see an increasing share price over the next 12-15 months. Especially in the later part of this year. People can speculate all day as to what the price should or could have been. Here are some facts. There has been pressure on many mining issues of late, not just HRG. Around its peak range, HRG did a financing with the likes of Cormark, CIBC and Dundee. $3.10 Canadian per unit. Now it is doing one at $1.79. Seems low I agree, and probably, yes, the price has been engineered, in my opinion. The trading as I previously noted was very tight, controlled and kept low it appeared, or at least within very tight ranges. This would explain that action, as they, if this scenario is true, wanted this deal to appear to be reasonable at a lower price. This is pure conjecture, and my opinion, of what might have been going on. But one might ask, what price should it have been, and could it have been done at now? Well the stock probably was going to decline, along with many, so to where? Without going into my calculations, and to cut to a price, I think it should have been done at $2.20 range. But it has not been. Result. I can live with it. I can also live with acquiring stock below this price. As I said many times, I think below $1.40 was and is a steal. I expect substantially higher pricing once this deal has concluded. I also think that HRG should be trading at around $2.25 or higher now, so it is very heavily discounted, for all the above reasons. IMO
As for MANAGEMENT, they NEED TO SHOW they can manage the funds, PRODUCE RESULTS and KEEP COSTA IN LINE. In other words, beyond all these speculated upon games, can they do the job and make some money mining??? Some have speculated on managment changes, which have not happened. Will they? Not convinced, as it seems it is a merry little group here, all in bed together. This does not mean the share price does not get promoted, the wealth of Prognoz and elsewhere is not reflected in the share price over time. But it will also depend upon doing a good job, less we forget that is actually supposed to be their job. Sort of funny in itself, when you think of all this focus on the deals, and not so much on running the operations of late.
Why so? It is Russia after all, along with Canadians! Nobody ever said Canadian mining was not full of questionable deals, and in Russia the games are fully on(IMO) However the one thing both have in common?? They are ALL as greedy as anyone else, and very hard to believe they do not want to profit. Which generally means they would like an increasing stock price once fully positioned. The trick then, if this is true, is to buy as cheaply as they do. And at a 20%+ discount to their price it seems like a great bargain to me. Comments??