RE: Our Nickel-Copper deposit (Chaya)Yes, those assets which HRG has shine and should have this shareprice higher, but we have vested interests, as I see it, holding back the valuation. Call it intentional, or just poorly managed or whatever you like, but the shareprice is suffering because the future is not clear: including the path, the chances, the management ability, or even the real goals of the largest investor now.(IMO) Especially, in so far as the final share structure, the real plans, and even motivations are concerned. This of course is also partly the product of the real and perceived Russian track record to date, with respect to oil deals and other resource situations.
This coupled with the KEY issue, the current deal and settlement price for part 2, is what is holding back HRG.IMO And that of course greatly effects the current short term price.(IMO)
Management, simply fails to get a clear picture across with respect to this situation. They do not instill confidence. That IS their fault, they have nobody to blame other than themselves. Even now, with this potentially great deal, management makes it just uncertain enough to get a poor reaction from the investment community. It does leave one wondering about THEIR motivations, but the jury is actually still out on this.IMO In other words, speculation is the rule of the day, enhanced because management fails to present a clear picture.IMO Result: lack of confidence. It is that simple, the market is speaking.
One thing should be evident when dealing in Russia: HRG NEEDS to have big Russian participation. Without it, there would be a very high risk (IMO) of delays and any and all sorts of impediments and other nonsense put in place, in probably almost all aspects of business in Russia. Nobody should forget this reality, and delude themselves that HRG could somehow go this alone without this participation.IMO We are talking about large assets, that do not go unnoticed by the powers that be, and this is a COST of doing business in Russia.IMO That is the good thing about having a very powerfull Russian partner onside. Unless of course they themselves get somehow out of favour with the Poopin crew or others. However, good managment would have had this deal much cleaner, if only in presentation for example.(IMO) They should look to Kinross on how to project and achieve favorable shareholder review when doing business in Russia.IMO That is what we are paying for, guys who know how to not only run the company and operations, but know how to project and get favorable investor response to their deals. You expect it from investor relations, promotional team at least when dealing with this size of enterprise.
So that is the real issue here(IMO): and whats next is the BIG question????
If we see the Russian groups along with other major interests in harmony, and WANTING an INCREASING share price, I would expect publicity, promotion etc. Lots of news announcements and CLARITY over the next three months, once the deal is complete. Of course, in between confusion will rule, keeping the share price far lower than it should be.IMO
If on the other hand, the Russian play is actually to get 100% control, or 50%+ of the works, then they might well work against that and try and wrestle out shares and/or assets on the cheap. Again, good managment and BOD are supposed to deal with current shareholders interests first. If this turns out to be the case, future will play out less favorably for current investors, but still will probably appreciate over next year.IMO
I happen to think its the first case, and higher share price comes later this year after deal settles. I have always viewed this as a speculation on assets, with a time frame of over a year as often stated, until the picture was clarified in terms of potential and roll out. Without clarity projected by managment in a believable way price remains discounted. But that IS possibly why this opportunity exists, and price looks to be very cheap. If any of you believe the second case is correct, and the games just continue, then the outlook is not as good. IMO Do I think there is a chance of the second case being where we are going. Of course I do, but I favour choice one for a variety of reasons.
The managment here: on top of being faced with a sell off in most similar situations, amplified the situation in a negative way by their actions. It is either a fantastic opportunity, or a very big looming failure. I definitely think the future is bright, but the risks are there. It certainly will not be boring, as the story unfolds, I am sure.