RE: If Alfa buys at 1.79, I buy at 1.28Folks: f you are fixated on the short term in the current market nothing will make much sense. It will torture you for sure.IMO And short term is months, not days.
IF you are long term, try and sit back, and be objective. What has changed here of late?
Metal prices are off their highs. That is a fact. One would normally expect therefore to see a correction in the mining issues. In fact they reacted for the most part before, and came off their highs. So we have over a period of six months, extreme volatility in MOST things. Welcome to risk, uncertainty, worry, some panic and a lot of BS. But take a look back at HRG chart over the last years. You could buy it this cheap, when they had, what was it?? What do they have now? What is the cap? What were the metal prices back then?
Question now. Whats next?
The downside in many of these issues, including this one, has already taken place.IMO It may see volatile panic selling on any given day, but the value is substantial at this price range. If you play to beat this action, you might win of course. I invest now mostly for long term, especially when I see value which I expect has a huge chance of asserting itself on the stock price over time. Take your pick on which style. What I know from experience is this. If I am correct in my analysis it IS just a matter of time, all else being equal. Short term I can be completely wrong, while ironically being correct in my analysis, as to eventual outcome. I am looking to the potential outcome on this one. I will wait, and buy, and wait and wait and then see how it unfolds.
Metals: they will gyrate, the volatility was completely expected by many. Moving forward. I see bottom formation after volatile sessions, and then a resumption of upward movement. The reasons are all out there. If you believe somehow the US and world has solved all the issues surrounding paper, inflation, debt, oil, politics, shortages, greenhouse, trade imbalances, shifts in world power, consumption of food, water and other commodities etc etc. then buy GE and GM. I do not believe that to be the case. Not even close. We are in deep doodoo.IMO
HRG: it moves higherIIMO) probably with substantial movement after October, but you can never be sure, as if I was a K, ABX or a few others, I would be taking a run at this now. If I was the current investor, I might in fact take a run at the whole works as well! After the deal it will be too late in terms of the current pricing discount.IMO
Markets: I expected the rally in other stocks, particularly in some Medical and Biotechnology issues. I also expect it to be short lived in terms of the overall market? Why? Problems are not solved. In fact, one could argue these equity markets are completely delusional, but what else is new over last couple of decades. I think this does not end well, unfortunately. Hope I am wrong on this point. Once again, I would own some gold and silver, along with some gold stocks such as this one.
The key here at HRG. You think beyond all this, look at the assets and ask yourself, is there value here? If so, how much, when might it assert in terms of the share price, and then IF you think yes, position yourself, and, In my opinion, this is a case where it is almost best to just ignore it for about three months. That is IF you are long term and can handle it. Some can't, and they probably should not be invested in these sorts of situations to begin with. But having done so, to part now, seems almost pathetic.IMO
I do not expect the Russian situation to play out against HRG moving forward. But it could, that is a risk of course. It think in fact, it will probably help HRG at this point. The investor is strong. These investors will not stand by and let these guys mess up their investment.IMO I do not think they will be like the Canadian investors to date. These previous PP investors appear for whatever their reasons unable to take any action as far as the BOD or managment decisions. Why not, is an interesting question. I do not have an answer. That is their problem, and their losses to date. Maybe they are all in bed together, who knows?
The metal prices today? I am actually happy to see gold drop here. I want to buy more physical, both gold and silver, and have been away from Canada for a while. I plan on buying in Canada over the next few weeks, so it has actually worked out in my favor so far. I said before that I expected and was surprised gold had not had a pullback to the $850 range. Well here it is!
HRG: I am still picking up more daily. I can afford to, and as well, as stated willing to wait, for better or worse, to see the outcome. One thing seems clear. We will have washed out many of the weak hands here. They will be able to look back and either say they were smart, or as I see it, at these prices realize they sold at or near the bottom.