Watching and dippingI have watched this stock tank and I am simply mystified by all the noise. POG took a hit, investors exiting positions, August doldrums, resource sell off, the end of the world as we know it, etc etc. Just some bottom fishing here and I hope a bit BIG bounce later in the fall.
Does HRG have a poison pill position? At the current SP why would there not be interest from other buyers? This thing smells it's so cheap. The SP is broken because the company is broken. Why wouldn't K be interested? They are the only other big Canadian gold miner in Russia I believe.
There are a lot of smarter people on this board than me, and I need to get a handle on what could/should happen within the next 60-90-120 days.
1) Will the first portion go through? Odds? If yes, HRG has a wad of cash, is this cash restricted to the deal or can it be used for other purposes? Buy back would be nice.
2) Assuming the deal does go through, then they buy in at 1.79 , yes dilution, but cash to bring on a new asset. Can ALPHA reprice the deal? What do they loose if they do? Who benefits most either way? What will this do to the share price? up, down, flat?
2a) The balance sheet would look better with the new equity financing as long as they don't blow their load.
3) Second round, what happens if it does not go through?
What will this do to the share price? up, down, flat?
4) POG returns to $900-$950
What will this do to the share price? up, down, flat?
4) Yes the SP is being held in a range, low volume this morning
5) There is supposed to be a special shareholder meeting for the second round.
6) How are the institutional groups reacting? buying more?
7) They have production, reserves, new projects, piss poor management and terrible execution.
8) If HRG could get its act together this could be a great producer.
Thoughts....
Cheers!
CJ