Focus here on outcome for many...In general folks use these boards for a few things:
1. What's next: where price is usually the bottom line, or sometimes existence or viability.
2. Discussion on their opinion. Sometimes with an agenda, sometimes attempt at objectivity.
3. Ego: we all have one, so it slips in to one degree or another at times.
4. Information: of a general nature, usually directed in the end at point one.
5. Entertainment. It can be funny, informative, depressing, uplifting and even educational. Not bad at times for little if any cost, in todays world.
6. Agenda: posts where there is an agenda which is not necessarily connected to any sort of truth or reality, simply done to influence or discredit. Many accuse those who disagree with them or popular beliefs held on a board of this. It can be true of course, but often may be nothing more than an opinion, not popular.
With HRG: I do not think there is much that has not been gone over, and there is little actual news or fact that changes the current known information. What is debated mostly is point 1. Because it is not clear the business plan of the current new managment, there is speculation there. With a fair amount of free trading shares out, year end tax and other situations, one can expect some volatility. There are a few facts which I think make for a more than 50% chance of an upward trend over medium and longer term.
The investors paid more to date than the prevailing price, and since they had time to analyze, that is a good sign.IMO
We do not know what they plan as far as listing on TSE, and this uncertainty is a downward or hold on upward appreciation to date.
The production and costs are not entirely clear at this moment, we do not know whether they are trending in the right direction. I feel, whether they have to date or not, there is a better than even chance over time they will. This may represent more volatility. As when they release financials, I do not expect that over the last while there is anything great that occured, it is the future resolution of some of the issues where I see appresciation. These will not be apparent in latest financials.IMO In fact they may look bad, which may cause some selling. Opportunity in my opinion.
That is where we are at. It is impossible to know many of the basic things OTHER than ONE overriding fact. Somebody paid more, and they did not buy in to lose money. This in and of itself guarantees nothing. BUT it normally in such a depressed sector is a good sign.
The real upside here is defined by this: the cap is cheap, and the future could be great. The future may well see gold move up substantially.IMO Gold has held up very well, and should also be viewed by many in terms of other currencies. Also, the Canadian dollar is down over 25% in a short time, which means gold is still well over $900 per ounce in Canadian dollars. Gold is not going down as much as oil. Also good. Production looks to be going up here, as many problems have been resolved or at least partially addressed.
Also: the mining sector is trading at very low levels. The prices in this sector will rally strongly on any move in the metals prices or signs that all the pumping starts to have some effect. Big questions, but the answers are not clear.
So nobody can say for certain where the price will be in the short term, as there are too many unknown variables. But I believe objective view of assets, current backing, production, etc. etc would certainly view this as undervalued.
Since nobody in their right mind would actually short this sort of situation, if even possible, (without actual knowledge currently not known by others) the play is to look for buy in points, or selling because of individual need (cash needs, tax loss selling, portfolio requirements etc). Nobody here on this board can say with any certainty where the price is going, but as I say, an objective, non emotional view would I believe place considerable more upside here than downside. Thus down ticks now are a buy. Where, how low it may or may not go is pure conjecture.IMO Take your pick. I am long, I am buying even more if toward year end here we get more dips. It is not complicated for me at THESE PRICE RANGES. We can all argue over pennies for a bit. The question is whether over the medium to long term those who hold now get significant upside move, which extends over a longer time frame. Yes, is my opinion.