90 daysDid anything really actually change with respect to HRG in the last 72 hours? Expectations got crushed and profits got spanked and that's about it unless you include witch hunts on this board. Game is far from over. FY08 was really going to suck, ok agreed didn't help having the financials delayed. But remember HRG did the same thing in Q3 of FY08, and they released those 30 days later, and those reasons sounded far more serious.
In question are the production numbers from Berezitovy “… late due to concerns regarding production numbers received by the Company from its 99% owned subsidiary, Berezitovy Rudnik LLC ("Berezitovy"). If I am not mistaken they produced a whopping 1,2K oz in December 08, so hardly earth shattering or even material. They also produced 48K oz in pre production FY08. So, unless the numbers were too low in Dec 08, why the big deal? Berezitovy in 2009 did 5.9Koz in Jan 09 and 7.1Koz in Feb 09. Do you see an improvement? Did gold suddenly fall to zero? Did all production cease? Don’t be silly, Q1 is where it’s at, HRG is cash positive now. Severstal is not going to walk away, they see the potential, that’s why they plunked down $56 million to buy in. They are not manipulating this, the market and scared investors are doing it for them. Shorts and traders will continue to be all over this negative news, so expect the unexpected.
All HRG needs is for gold to hang above $900 US and improving production numbers. If those two things happen, HRG can turn on a dime and head back up on a breath of positive news.
I think this will all play out in the next 90 days as most of the player's cards are now showing, we just need to see the river card. I hope that within 30 days HRG releases the FY 2008 statements. HRG has not announced the AGM as of yet (strange yes?), Q1 financials by May 15, 2009, and the TSX listing review must be done by June 10, 2009. I also believe HRG will have a deal before June 30 09 (hence AGM notice delay). Just also remember HRG went to .04 back in November, and as it stands now, smatest money moved in then. I hope we do not test the super lows again. If your are really freaked out, sell some, wait, and hope it trades lower, and start again.
CJ