GREY:HRIVF - Post by User
Comment by
Critical_Masson Jun 08, 2010 12:12pm
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Post# 17168723
RE: Prognoz - Great news
RE: Prognoz - Great newsDefinitly great news. Worst case we get 18m dollars out of this.
Best case we get the other half of prognoz for firesale prices in bankruptcy proceedings.
I'm not sure how Russian Bankruptcy proceedings work, but they will likely put the other 50% of prognoz up for sale to cover their debts. We can negotiate with the other owner and agree to some sort of arrangement as we are the debt holders. Or they can auction it and solicit more bidders. This will be negotiated with the courts supervision. Either way we should increase our stake and gain control.
Looking back now, it seems all the more likely the writedown of Prognoz was aimed mainly at increasing our chances of attaining the other half of this asset at a firesale written down price. Although it was very annoying at the time, for long term holders this will work to our advantage now if it plays out as I think. We actually have Severstal screwing the other holder for our benifit. What irony. I'm not complaining though. Whatever I think of Severstal, I have to give management respect for being astute businessmen.
In my opinion, Prognoz is by far the most valuable thing HRG owns. So this is great news for me. Stinks though as I doubt it will play out quickly. And then it will take years more to develope it. But we are closer today.