RE: RE: RE: RE: re share swap Seems to me that from Mordy's perspective a swap arrangrement is the most likely offer that we as (mostly long term) minority shareholders of HRG can expect. Even though he was talking about a dividend, I really believe nothing that comes out of his crooked mouth anyway until it actually materialises. So if a 3:1 or 4:1 offer is made, the first question is, how will it be unfolding?
Nordgold shares will be diluted from 359 M by 73 M (in case of 3:1 share exchange) to 432 M of Nord thus diluting the value even more to the already meagre 5 $ per share today. On the other hand one could argue that adding the remaining 220 M shares of HRG would definitely contribute a lot of extra value to Nord. So looking at it as an overall no change in value per NORD share we would get 1.67 $ for each HRG, a premium of say 53c give or take a few translating into a % premium of 46%, however that would be based on todays' very low quotes of NORD as well as HRG. So from a first look that could be a realistic scenario. Of course then there is the "MORDY" factor ...
Or he just sits tight and uses HRG as a cash cow to finance NORD's debts. That's what has been happening lately. So we the minority shareholders are as usual kept suspended in midair and at tghe same time kept in the dark, which could go on for some time yet (years do come to mind ...).
If they do need some cash and assuming that the buyout would increase the share value of NORD over the ensuing months and Mordy wants to cash out some of his holdings, a deal might actually be possible. Now to me whether i hold HRG or NORD is of secondary significance, provided that NORD also trades on the TSE or NYSE and hopefully in higher volume.
Presently both, HRG and NORD share holders who are thinking of selling suffer greatly as they are both thin traders. the float isn't really that small at 220 M for HRG minority holders (including institutional and other large holders however) and about 39 M for NORD (I don't know the amount held here by large investors).
My 2 cents worth,
Wolf E