- with Murombe, Baobab or Sivaradi
obviously the P90 volumes have the greater probability, and they are still huge with murombe near to a billion boe
Baobab COS 26% P90 23,4%
Murombe COS 23,5% P90 21,15%
Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab or Murombe
1- (0,766*0,7885) = 39,6%
(Assumed Baobab possible volumes equal to D&M Wingat estimation)
Baobab P90 oil success=277 mmbo x $7/bbl x 86% ownership / 657 fully diluted shares = $2,54/share
+480% from yesterdays closing price
Murombe P90 oil success = 996 mmbo x $7/bbl x 86% ownership / 657 FD shares = $9,12/share
+1821% from yesterdays closing price
+ if we include Sivaradi with a COS (which we don't know) of let's say 20% P90 18%
Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab, Murombe or Sivaradi
1- (0,766*0,7885*0,82) = 50,5%
GLA :)