The new bullboard disappeared, weird. Posting again here. 

While the recent share price volatility has been abnormally high, I would definitely not extrapolate this kind of volatility in the future.  

The original deal of ~9M shares has been placed in very strong hands. The accounts that invested in it are all long-term oriented funds and did a lot of due diligence to get comfortable in getting into a name that was not yet listed on a “real” exchange and where the S shares they would receive would be locked up for 1 or 2 months.

I believe one of the participants in the deal was already a large shareholder and might have sold a very small part of its existing position (no hold) in the recent ramp, but is definitely in it for the long-run.

The volatility of the last two days has almost nothing to do it the original deal. The real culprit is the over-allotment option that Mackie exercised. While it seems Mackie as allocated most of the deal to accounts “approved” by the company, it also allocated a small portion (~25% is my estimate) of the over-allotment from the deal (15% of the original deal or an additional ~1.3M shares) to accounts that could be referred to as “fast money”. While we can all speculate as to why Mackie did this, I believe it is beside the point as they will likely NEVER be involved in another Helius deal.

I believe most of the profit taking is behind us. These fast accounts have likely sold through #1 (anonymous) and the quantities sold through that broker in the last two days are over 450K shares or 32%. Even if I have no respect for Mackie, I believe they would have never placed more than that amount into weak hands that would be committing suicide.

Perhaps it takes a few days for the dust to settle, but I cannot imagine that everyone that put an order in the over-allotment got its fill, meaning these accounts will be buying directly in the market over the next two months. Remember, everyone needs to have their full positions ready before the TBI results are reported. If the results are positive and encouraging, institutional investors will likely increase their weight as the stock will be further de-risked, thus pushing the price up even further up prior to an FDA approval decision (later this year).

Best,

Prokofiev