GREY:HYKCF - Post by User
Comment by
larsen6on Apr 10, 2007 5:08pm
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Post# 12581078
RE: Increased target price
RE: Increased target priceHard to say.
Yahoo lists Wenzel and Innicor as comparable businesses.
In March, Wenzel announced 2006 results of $0.16 cents per share and is now trading for $1.40, for a P/E of 9x. Their 2006 EPS fell from $0.21 in 2005. They have a note in their earnings report saying that the lost nickel a share was a one time occurence. I am leery of this as it looks like they were trying to hide profits in the Caribbean.
Innicor announced 2006 results of $0.16 per share and is trading at $1.70, for a P/E of 10.6. Their 2006 EPS was flat versus 2005($0.16/share).
So here we are. Let's say the industry is treading water, i.e., the earnings will be flat this year. And let's say that the industry has a 9.5x handle.
At a price of $2.00 per share, HYD will need to earn $0.21/share in 2007 to stay where it is. Dividing by four gives us a $0.0525/qtr target for our earnings to be released later this month.
Proviso: this is super back of the napkin stuff here. I have not looked at even the debt of these three to see who is leveraged the most/least.
And finally. I think I said $0.11 cents a share a couple of posts back. Admittedly, it looks like I was a little over zealous in this estimate. If they can do 6.5 cents or better though, we should still be off to the races.
GLTA,
Larsen6