Comment by
Stuator on Jun 02, 2020 7:33am
RE:Growth and 2020
Looks like I wasn't too far off the mark on total number of procedures completed for 2019 - est. 110% increase vs. actual of 111% increase - off by 5 procedurs. They pretty much telegraphed it with prior news announcements.
I was completely wrong on their EBITDA numbers and earnings though. Mostly due to:
A) the 6M adjustment they made to recievables and
B) the increased write-off of 10M due to a disagreement on price with a payor
These adjustments that have occurred routinely from quarter to quarter create uncertainty. The Market doesn't pay-up for uncertainty and more importantly it punishes for less than expected results. This company has both problems.
I also didn't think they gave enough colour on their issue with the payor, other than they've come to an impasse.
What happens next?
Does Assure not perform any procedures with this payor from now until an agreement can be reached? What impact on procedure totals does this have on past procedures?
I know they've given a year-end number for procedures but in light of past guidances, they've crushed these numbers and this discredits future estimates. Don't get me wrong, I think they'll hit their guidance, heck, I think they'll beat their guidance for procedures. It's just by how much...
In the past post, pre-covid, I mentioned that they had already grown by about 3105 procedures in 2020. That would put them around ~9500, pre-covid. If you take away 900-1100 procedures due to covid, and add 250-300 (half year) for the Arizona expansion, that puts them somewhere in the ballpark of 9000 procedures. I think they will handly beat their guidance of 10500 procedures and would be looking more around 12000-13000 procedures.
On a lighter note: Will Trent become Clint Eastwood? (Trent is the CFO and made a comment on a quarterly call that he'd have to go all Clint E. on someone who doesn't pay - as a joke).
I'm hoping they have better news next quarter or at least a little more colour.